Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.
COVID-19
Dynamic transmission model
Temperature
Journal
The Science of the total environment
ISSN: 1879-1026
Titre abrégé: Sci Total Environ
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 0330500
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 Aug 2020
01 Aug 2020
Historique:
received:
18
04
2020
revised:
20
04
2020
accepted:
20
04
2020
pubmed:
28
4
2020
medline:
25
6
2020
entrez:
28
4
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
A COVID-19 outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and developed into a global pandemic during March 2020. The effects of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in China are unknown. Data on COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and daily mean temperatures were collected from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China between Jan. 20 and Feb. 29, 2020. Locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplot (LOESS), distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), and random-effects meta-analysis were used to examine the relationship between daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 and temperature conditions. The daily number of new cases peaked on Feb. 12, and then decreased. The daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 had a biphasic relationship with temperature (with a peak at 10 °C), and the daily incidence of COVID-19 decreased at values below and above these values. The overall epidemic intensity of COVID-19 reduced slightly following days with higher temperatures with a relative risk (RR) was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). A random-effect meta-analysis including 28 provinces in mainland China, we confirmed the statistically significant association between temperature and RR during the study period (Coefficient = -0.0100, 95% CI: -0.0125, -0.0074). The DLNMs in Hubei Province (outside of Wuhan) and Wuhan showed similar patterns of temperature. Additionally, a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model, with adjustment for climatic factors, was used to provide a complete characterization of the impact of climate on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32339844
pii: S0048-9697(20)32407-4
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138890
pmc: PMC7177086
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Meta-Analysis
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
138890Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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