A novel online calculator to predict perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: an international multicenter study.
Journal
HPB : the official journal of the International Hepato Pancreato Biliary Association
ISSN: 1477-2574
Titre abrégé: HPB (Oxford)
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100900921
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 2020
12 2020
Historique:
received:
28
09
2019
revised:
18
02
2020
accepted:
16
03
2020
pubmed:
29
4
2020
medline:
26
10
2021
entrez:
29
4
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To develop an easy-to-use model to predict the probability of perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) in patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). 878 patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital of Shanghai were enrolled in the training cohort, while 691 patients from Tongji Hospital of Wuhan and 364 patients from two hospitals from Europe and America served as the Eastern and Western external validation cohorts, respectively. Independent predictors of PBT were identified and used for the nomogram construction. The predictive performance of the model was assessed using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot, and externally validated using the two independent cohorts. This model was compared with four currently available prediction risk scores. Eight preoperative variables were identified as independent predictors of PBT, which were incorporated into the new nomogram model, with a C-index of 0.833 and a well-fitted calibration plot. The nomogram performed well on the externally Eastern and Western validation cohorts (C-indexes: 0.786 and 0.777). The discriminatory ability of the nomogram was superior to the four currently available prediction scores (C-indexes: 0.833 vs. 0.671-0.770). The nomogram was programmed into an online calculator, which is available at http://www.asapcalculate.top/Cal3_en.html. A nomogram model, using an easy-to-access website, can be used to calculate the PBT risk and identify which patients undergoing HCC resection are at high risks of PBT and can benefit most by using blood conservation techniques.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
To develop an easy-to-use model to predict the probability of perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) in patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
METHOD
878 patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital of Shanghai were enrolled in the training cohort, while 691 patients from Tongji Hospital of Wuhan and 364 patients from two hospitals from Europe and America served as the Eastern and Western external validation cohorts, respectively. Independent predictors of PBT were identified and used for the nomogram construction. The predictive performance of the model was assessed using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot, and externally validated using the two independent cohorts. This model was compared with four currently available prediction risk scores.
RESULTS
Eight preoperative variables were identified as independent predictors of PBT, which were incorporated into the new nomogram model, with a C-index of 0.833 and a well-fitted calibration plot. The nomogram performed well on the externally Eastern and Western validation cohorts (C-indexes: 0.786 and 0.777). The discriminatory ability of the nomogram was superior to the four currently available prediction scores (C-indexes: 0.833 vs. 0.671-0.770). The nomogram was programmed into an online calculator, which is available at http://www.asapcalculate.top/Cal3_en.html.
CONCLUSION
A nomogram model, using an easy-to-access website, can be used to calculate the PBT risk and identify which patients undergoing HCC resection are at high risks of PBT and can benefit most by using blood conservation techniques.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32340856
pii: S1365-182X(20)30105-2
doi: 10.1016/j.hpb.2020.03.018
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Multicenter Study
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1711-1721Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.