Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones.
climate change
detection and attribution
large-ensemble simulations
spatial pattern
tropical cyclones
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 1091-6490
Titre abrégé: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7505876
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
19 05 2020
19 05 2020
Historique:
pubmed:
6
5
2020
medline:
6
5
2020
entrez:
6
5
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and the effects of multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge to detect trends in tropical cyclone activity on a global scale. However, there is a distinct spatial pattern of the trends in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence on a global scale since 1980, with substantial decreases in the southern Indian Ocean and western North Pacific and increases in the North Atlantic and central Pacific. Here, using a suite of high-resolution dynamical model experiments, we show that the observed spatial pattern of trends is very unlikely to be explained entirely by underlying multidecadal internal variability; rather, external forcing such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions likely played an important role. This study demonstrates that a climatic change in terms of the global spatial distribution of tropical cyclones has already emerged in observations and may in part be attributable to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32366651
pii: 1922500117
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1922500117
pmc: PMC7245084
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
10706-10714Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare no competing interest.
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