Estimation of Unreported Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Infections from Reported Deaths: A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead Model.
COVID-19
epidemic model
epidemiology
novel coronavirus
Journal
Journal of clinical medicine
ISSN: 2077-0383
Titre abrégé: J Clin Med
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101606588
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
05 May 2020
05 May 2020
Historique:
received:
04
04
2020
revised:
24
04
2020
accepted:
28
04
2020
entrez:
9
5
2020
pubmed:
10
5
2020
medline:
10
5
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
In the midst of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic, examining reported case data could lead to biased speculations and conclusions. Indeed, estimation of unreported infections is crucial for a better understanding of the current emergency in China and in other countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the unreported number of infections in China prior to the 23 January 2020 restrictions. To do this, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model that estimated unreported infections from the reported number of deaths. Our approach relied on the fact that observed deaths were less likely to be affected by ascertainment biases than reported infections. Interestingly, we estimated that the basic reproductive number (
Identifiants
pubmed: 32380708
pii: jcm9051350
doi: 10.3390/jcm9051350
pmc: PMC7291317
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
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