A Framework to Monitor Changes in Transmission and Epidemiology of Emerging Pathogens: Lessons From Nipah Virus.


Journal

The Journal of infectious diseases
ISSN: 1537-6613
Titre abrégé: J Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0413675

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
11 05 2020
Historique:
entrez: 12 5 2020
pubmed: 12 5 2020
medline: 23 2 2021
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

It is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (1) spillover risk, (2) interhuman transmission, and (3) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on 6 epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators' value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh. We show that although interhuman transmission and morbidity/mortality indicators were stable, the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time. This combination of systematic surveillance and active tracking of transmission and epidemiological indicators should be applied to other high-risk emerging pathogens to prevent public health emergencies.

Identifiants

pubmed: 32392322
pii: 5835765
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa074
pmc: PMC7213557
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

S363-S369

Subventions

Organisme : FIC NIH HHS
ID : R01 TW005869
Pays : United States

Informations de copyright

© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

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Auteurs

Birgit Nikolay (B)

Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS, Paris, France.

Henrik Salje (H)

Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS, Paris, France.

A K M Dawlat Khan (AKMD)

Infectious Diseases Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Hossain M S Sazzad (HMS)

Infectious Diseases Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Syed M Satter (SM)

Infectious Diseases Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Mahmudur Rahman (M)

Infectious Diseases Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Stephanie Doan (S)

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

Barbara Knust (B)

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

Meerjady Sabrina Flora (MS)

Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Stephen P Luby (SP)

Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine Division, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.

Simon Cauchemez (S)

Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS, Paris, France.

Emily S Gurley (ES)

Infectious Diseases Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

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Classifications MeSH