Constraining Atmospheric Selenium Emissions Using Observations, Global Modeling, and Bayesian Inference.

Selenium (Se) is an essential dietary element for humans and animals, and the atmosphere is an important source of Se to soils. However, estimates of global atmospheric Se fluxes are highly uncertain. To constrain these uncertainties, we use a global model of atmospheric Se cycling and a database of more than 600 sites where Se in aerosol has been measured. Applying Bayesian inference techniques, we determine the probability distributions of global Se emissions from the four major sources: anthropogenic activities, volcanoes, marine biosphere, and terrestrial biosphere. Between 29 and 36 Gg of Se are emitted to the atmosphere every year, doubling previous estimates of emissions. Using emission parameters optimized by aerosol network measurements, our model shows good agreement with the aerosol Se observations (