Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
COVID-19
Coronavirus Infections
/ epidemiology
Cost of Illness
Critical Care
Female
France
/ epidemiology
Hospitalization
/ statistics & numerical data
Humans
Immunity
Male
Middle Aged
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral
/ epidemiology
Quarantine
Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus
Young Adult
Journal
Science (New York, N.Y.)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Titre abrégé: Science
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0404511
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 07 2020
10 07 2020
Historique:
received:
20
04
2020
accepted:
11
05
2020
pubmed:
15
5
2020
medline:
17
7
2020
entrez:
15
5
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32404476
pii: science.abc3517
doi: 10.1126/science.abc3517
pmc: PMC7223792
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
208-211Commentaires et corrections
Type : ErratumIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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