Daily Temperature and Bacillary Dysentery: Estimated Effects, Attributable Risks, and Future Disease Burden in 316 Chinese Cities.
Journal
Environmental health perspectives
ISSN: 1552-9924
Titre abrégé: Environ Health Perspect
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0330411
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
05 2020
05 2020
Historique:
entrez:
27
5
2020
pubmed:
27
5
2020
medline:
15
12
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a significant public health issue, especially in developing countries. Evidence assessing the risk of BD from temperature is limited, particularly from national studies including multiple locations with different climatic characteristics. We estimated the effect of temperature on BD across China, assessed heterogeneity and attributable risks across cities and regions, and projected the future risk of BD under climate change. Daily BD surveillance and meteorological data over 2014-2016 were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the China Meteorology Administration, respectively. A two-stage statistical model was used to estimate city-specific temperature-BD relationships that were pooled to derive regional and national estimates. The risk of BD attributable to temperature was estimated, and the future burden of BD attributable to temperature was projected under different climate change scenarios. A positive linear relationship for the pooled effect was estimated at the national level. Subgroup analyses indicate that the estimated effect of temperature on BD was similar by age ( The positive association between temperature and BD in different climatic regions of China, and the projection for increased risk due to climate change, support efforts to mitigate future risks. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5779.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a significant public health issue, especially in developing countries. Evidence assessing the risk of BD from temperature is limited, particularly from national studies including multiple locations with different climatic characteristics.
OBJECTIVES
We estimated the effect of temperature on BD across China, assessed heterogeneity and attributable risks across cities and regions, and projected the future risk of BD under climate change.
METHODS
Daily BD surveillance and meteorological data over 2014-2016 were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the China Meteorology Administration, respectively. A two-stage statistical model was used to estimate city-specific temperature-BD relationships that were pooled to derive regional and national estimates. The risk of BD attributable to temperature was estimated, and the future burden of BD attributable to temperature was projected under different climate change scenarios.
RESULTS
A positive linear relationship for the pooled effect was estimated at the national level. Subgroup analyses indicate that the estimated effect of temperature on BD was similar by age (
CONCLUSIONS
The positive association between temperature and BD in different climatic regions of China, and the projection for increased risk due to climate change, support efforts to mitigate future risks. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5779.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32452706
doi: 10.1289/EHP5779
pmc: PMC7266621
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
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