Distribution and growth rate of COVID-19 outbreak in Tamil Nadu: A log-linear regression approach.
COVID-19 outbreak
Tamil Nadu
decay rate
growth rate
Journal
Indian journal of public health
ISSN: 0019-557X
Titre abrégé: Indian J Public Health
Pays: India
ID NLM: 0400673
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jun 2020
Jun 2020
Historique:
entrez:
5
6
2020
pubmed:
5
6
2020
medline:
18
6
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Most of the countries are affected with the pandemic outbreak of the coronavirus infection. Understanding the severity and distribution in various regions will help in planning the controlling measures. The objective was to assess the distribution and growth rate of COVID-19 infection in Tamil Nadu, India. The data on the number of infections of COVID-19 have been obtained from the media reports released by the Government of Tamil Nadu. The data contain information on the incidence of the disease for the first 41 days of the outbreak started on March 7, 2020. Log-linear model has been used to estimate the progression of the COVID-19 infection in Tamil Nadu. Separate models were employed to model the growth rate and decay rate of the disease. Spatial Poisson regression was used to identify the high-risk areas in the state. : The models estimated the doubling time for the number of cases in growth phase as 3.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.70, 9.42) days and halving time in the decay phase as 12.08 (95% CI: 6.79, 54.78) days. The estimated median reproduction numbers were 1.88 (min = 1.09, max = 2.51) and 0.76 (min = 0.56, max = 0.99) in the growth and decay phases, respectively. The spatial Poisson regression identified 11 districts as high risk. The results indicate that the outbreak is showing decay in the number of infections of the disease which highlights the effectiveness of controlling measures.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Most of the countries are affected with the pandemic outbreak of the coronavirus infection. Understanding the severity and distribution in various regions will help in planning the controlling measures.
OBJECTIVES
OBJECTIVE
The objective was to assess the distribution and growth rate of COVID-19 infection in Tamil Nadu, India.
METHODS
METHODS
The data on the number of infections of COVID-19 have been obtained from the media reports released by the Government of Tamil Nadu. The data contain information on the incidence of the disease for the first 41 days of the outbreak started on March 7, 2020. Log-linear model has been used to estimate the progression of the COVID-19 infection in Tamil Nadu. Separate models were employed to model the growth rate and decay rate of the disease. Spatial Poisson regression was used to identify the high-risk areas in the state.
RESULTS
RESULTS
: The models estimated the doubling time for the number of cases in growth phase as 3.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.70, 9.42) days and halving time in the decay phase as 12.08 (95% CI: 6.79, 54.78) days. The estimated median reproduction numbers were 1.88 (min = 1.09, max = 2.51) and 0.76 (min = 0.56, max = 0.99) in the growth and decay phases, respectively. The spatial Poisson regression identified 11 districts as high risk.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
The results indicate that the outbreak is showing decay in the number of infections of the disease which highlights the effectiveness of controlling measures.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32496253
pii: IndianJPublicHealth_2020_64_6_188_285620
doi: 10.4103/ijph.IJPH_502_20
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
S188-S191Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
None