Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.


Journal

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Titre abrégé: medRxiv
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101767986

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
13 Mar 2020
Historique:
pubmed: 9 6 2020
medline: 9 6 2020
entrez: 9 6 2020
Statut: epublish

Résumé

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

Identifiants

pubmed: 32511459
doi: 10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761
pmc: PMC7239087
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Preprint

Langues

eng

Commentaires et corrections

Type : UpdateIn

Références

Euro Surveill. 2020 Feb;25(6):
pubmed: 32070465
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr;93:284-286
pubmed: 32145466
Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan;25(4):
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Ann Intern Med. 2020 May 05;172(9):577-582
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pubmed: 28351674
J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 17;9(2):
pubmed: 32079150
Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan;25(2):
pubmed: 31964460

Auteurs

Thibaut Jombart (T)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.
UK Public Health Rapid Support Team, London, United Kingdom.
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.

Kevin van Zandvoort (K)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Timothy W Russell (TW)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Christopher I Jarvis (CI)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Amy Gimma (A)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Sam Abbott (S)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Sam Clifford (S)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Sebastian Funk (S)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Hamish Gibbs (H)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Yang Liu (Y)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Carl A B Pearson (CAB)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.
South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Republic of South Africa.

Nikos I Bosse (NI)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Rosalind M Eggo (RM)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Adam J Kucharski (AJ)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

W John Edmunds (WJ)

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London. WC1E 7HT·.

Classifications MeSH