Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
SARS-CoV-2
covid-19
epidemics
estimation
modelling
outbreak
statistics
Journal
Wellcome open research
ISSN: 2398-502X
Titre abrégé: Wellcome Open Res
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101696457
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2020
2020
Historique:
accepted:
30
03
2020
entrez:
11
6
2020
pubmed:
11
6
2020
medline:
11
6
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32518842
doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1
pmc: PMC7255910
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
78Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_PC_19012
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/R015600/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Commentaires et corrections
Type : UpdateOf
Informations de copyright
Copyright: © 2020 Jombart T et al.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
No competing interests were disclosed.
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