Nomogram based on blood lipoprotein for estimation of mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.
Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure
/ blood
Adult
Age Factors
Cholesterol, LDL
/ blood
Creatinine
/ blood
Female
Hepatitis B virus
Humans
Kaplan-Meier Estimate
Male
Middle Aged
Nomograms
Predictive Value of Tests
Prospective Studies
Prothrombin Time
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Assessment
/ methods
Risk Factors
Acute-on-chronic liver failure
Hepatitis B virus
Low-density lipoprotein
Nomogram
Journal
BMC gastroenterology
ISSN: 1471-230X
Titre abrégé: BMC Gastroenterol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968547
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
15 Jun 2020
15 Jun 2020
Historique:
received:
16
05
2019
accepted:
01
06
2020
entrez:
17
6
2020
pubmed:
17
6
2020
medline:
27
3
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinic syndrome with substantial high short-term mortality. It is very important to stratify patients according to prognosis to decide management strategy. This study aimed to formulate and validate a nomogram model based on blood lipoprotein for prediction of 3-month mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related ACLF. Data on 393 consecutive patients who were diagnosed as HBV-related ACLF at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between June 1, 2013, and February 1, 2015, were prospectively collected. Of these, 260 patients who were collected in an earlier period formed the training cohort for the development of nomogram, while 133 patients who were collected thereafter formed the validation cohort for confirming the performance of nomogram. Multivariate analysis showed that low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), age, prothrombin time, and creatinine were independently associated with 3-month mortality of patients with HBV-related ACLF. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the high LDL-C (LDL-C ≥ 1.0 mmol/L, cut-off value) was significantly associated with elevated overall survival (P < 0.001). All independent factors for survival were selected into the nomogram. The calibration plot for the probability of survival showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. This study highlighted that reduction of serum LDL-C level was an independent risk factor for the survival in patients with HBV-related ACLF, and the nomogram based on serum LDL-C was an accurate and practical model for predicting the 3-month mortality in patients with this disease.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinic syndrome with substantial high short-term mortality. It is very important to stratify patients according to prognosis to decide management strategy. This study aimed to formulate and validate a nomogram model based on blood lipoprotein for prediction of 3-month mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related ACLF.
METHODS
METHODS
Data on 393 consecutive patients who were diagnosed as HBV-related ACLF at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between June 1, 2013, and February 1, 2015, were prospectively collected. Of these, 260 patients who were collected in an earlier period formed the training cohort for the development of nomogram, while 133 patients who were collected thereafter formed the validation cohort for confirming the performance of nomogram.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Multivariate analysis showed that low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), age, prothrombin time, and creatinine were independently associated with 3-month mortality of patients with HBV-related ACLF. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the high LDL-C (LDL-C ≥ 1.0 mmol/L, cut-off value) was significantly associated with elevated overall survival (P < 0.001). All independent factors for survival were selected into the nomogram. The calibration plot for the probability of survival showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
This study highlighted that reduction of serum LDL-C level was an independent risk factor for the survival in patients with HBV-related ACLF, and the nomogram based on serum LDL-C was an accurate and practical model for predicting the 3-month mortality in patients with this disease.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32539733
doi: 10.1186/s12876-020-01324-w
pii: 10.1186/s12876-020-01324-w
pmc: PMC7294630
doi:
Substances chimiques
Cholesterol, LDL
0
Creatinine
AYI8EX34EU
Types de publication
Journal Article
Validation Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
188Subventions
Organisme : National Natural Science Foundation of China
ID : 31401095
Organisme : National Natural Science Foundation of China
ID : 81670601
Organisme : Provincial Science and Technology Project of Guangdong province
ID : 2015B020226004
Organisme : the 5010 Project of Clinical Research in Sun Yat-sen University
ID : 2016009
Organisme : A2017118
ID : A2017118
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