Economic efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers under changing climate: evidence from Pakistan.

Climate resilient crop farming Climate variability Economic efficiency Quantile regression Rainfed wheat Stochastic production frontier

Journal

Environmental science and pollution research international
ISSN: 1614-7499
Titre abrégé: Environ Sci Pollut Res Int
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 9441769

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Sep 2020
Historique:
received: 01 02 2020
accepted: 09 06 2020
pubmed: 20 6 2020
medline: 20 8 2020
entrez: 20 6 2020
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Rainfed wheat farming directly depends upon climatic indicators and is mostly at the mercy of climatic extremes. This study analyzed the relationship between the economic efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers and indicators of climate variability in Pakistan employing a two-stage methodological framework. We used farm household level crop input-output and management data and secondary data on climate. In the first stage, a stochastic production frontier (SPF) approach was used to calculate economic efficiency. Then, in the second stage, the calculated economic efficiency scores were regressed against the temperature threshold, temperature anomaly, and total rainfall, in addition to socioeconomic, institutional, and farm variables, using OLS and quantile regression models. The results showed that temperature anomaly and the number of days when temperatures exceed 30 °C have negative and significant impacts on the economic efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers. Total rainfall showed positive and significant impacts across both OLS and quantile regression models. Further, we modeled a novel and very important variable in the context of rainfed wheat production in Pakistan, that is, farmers' participation in trainings in climate-resilient crop farming. This variable showed a positive and highly significant impact on economic efficiency of wheat farmers across all regression models. Our findings call for important policy implications, including developing up-to-date climate resilient adaptation strategies that are particularly focused on rainfed wheat farming. Establishing strong linkages between extension departments and rainfed wheat farmers could help sustain and improve the efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers and hence food and livelihood security.

Identifiants

pubmed: 32557029
doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09673-5
pii: 10.1007/s11356-020-09673-5
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

34453-34467

Subventions

Organisme : Fritz Thyssen Stiftung
ID : 40.18.0.009WW
Organisme : Punjab Higher Education Commission of Pakistan
ID : PHEC/HRD/FS/1-19/2016

Commentaires et corrections

Type : ErratumIn

Références

Abid M, Schneider UA, Scheffran J (2016) Adaptation to climate change and its impacts on food productivity and crop income: perspectives of farmers in rural Pakistan. J Rural Stud 47:254–266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.08.005
doi: 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.08.005
Abid M, Scheffran J, Schneider UA, Ashfaq M (2015) Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan. Earth Syst Dynamics 6(1):225–243. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015
doi: 10.5194/esd-6-225-2015
Ahmad A, Ashfaq M, Rasul G, Wajid S A, Khaliq T, Rasul F, Saeed U, Ur Rahman M H, Hussain J, Ahmad Baig I, Naqvi S A A (2015) Impact of climate change on the rice–wheat cropping system of Pakistan. In handbook of climate change and agroecosystems: the agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project integrated crop and economic assessments, part 2 (pp. 219-258). https://doi.org/10.1142/9781783265640_0019
Ahmed I, Ur Rahman MH, Ahmed S, Hussain J, Ullah A, Judge J (2018) Assessing the impact of climate variability on maize using simulation modeling under semi-arid environment of Punjab, Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 25(28):28413–28430. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-2884-3
doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-2884-3
Ahsan F, Chandio AA, Fang W (2020) Climate change impacts on cereal crops production in Pakistan. Int J Climate Change Strat Manag
Ali M, Flinn JC (1989) Profit efficiency among basmati rice producers in Pakistan Punjab. Am J Agric Econ 71(2):303–310
doi: 10.2307/1241587
Amjath-Babu TS, Krupnik TJ, Aravindakshan S, Arshad M, Kaechele H (2016) Climate change and indicators of probable shifts in the consumption portfolios of dry land farmers in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for policy. Ecol Indic 67:830–838. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.03.030
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.03.030
Arshad M, Amjath-Babu TS, Aravindakshan S, Krupnik TJ, Toussaint V, Kächele H, Müller K (2018) Climatic variability and thermal stress in Pakistan’s rice and wheat systems: a stochastic frontier and quantile regression analysis of economic efficiency. Ecol Indic 89:496–506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.12.014
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.12.014
Arshad M, Amjath-Babu TS, Krupnik TJ, Aravindakshan S, Abbas A, Kächele H, Müller K (2017a) Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia’s rice–wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan. Paddy Water Environ 15(2):249–261. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-016-0544-0
doi: 10.1007/s10333-016-0544-0
Arshad M, Kächele H, Krupnik TJ, Amjath-Babu TS, Aravindakshan S, Abbas A, Mehmood Y, Müller K (2017b) Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change: implications for adaptation in rural Pakistan. Int J Sustain Dev World Ecol 24(6):532–544. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2016.1254689
doi: 10.1080/13504509.2016.1254689
Arshad M, Amjath-Babu TS, Kächele H, Müller K (2016) What drives the willingness to pay for crop insurance against extreme weather events (flood and drought) in Pakistan? A hypothetical market approach. Clim Dev 8(3):234–244
doi: 10.1080/17565529.2015.1034232
Asseng S, Foster IAN, Turner NC (2011) The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Glob Chang Biol 17(2):997–1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02262.x
doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02262.x
Baig MB, Shahid SA, Straquadine GS (2013) Making rainfed agriculture sustainable through environmental friendly technologies in Pakistan: a review. Int Soil Water Conserv Res 1(2):36–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-6339(15)30038-1
doi: 10.1016/S2095-6339(15)30038-1
Battese GE, Nazli H, Smale M (2017) Factors influencing the productivity and efficiency of wheat farmers in Punjab, Pakistan. J Agribusi Dev Emerg Econ
Bradford JB, Schlaepfer DR, Lauenroth WK, Yackulic CB, Duniway M, Hall S, Jia G, Jamiyansharav K, Munson SM, Wilson SD, Tietjen B (2017) Future soil moisture and temperature extremes imply expanding suitability for rainfed agriculture in temperate drylands. Sci Rep 7(1):12923
doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-13165-x
Carty T, Magrath J (2013) Growing disruption: climate change, food, and the fight against hunger. Oxfam International, Oxford ( http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.UK/publications/growing-disruption-climate-change-food-and-the-fight-againsthunger-301878 )
Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB, Howden SM, Smith DR, Chhetri N (2014) A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat Clim Chang 4:287–291. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153
doi: 10.1038/nclimate2153
Chandio AA, Magsi H, Ozturk I (2020) Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27(8):7812–7822
doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-07486-9
Czyżewski B, Matuszczak A (2016) A new land rent theory for sustainable agriculture. Land Use Policy 2016(55):222–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.04.002
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.04.002
Dhankher OP, Foyer CH (2018) Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety. Plant Cell Environ 41(5):877–884
doi: 10.1111/pce.13207
Dogan E, Turkekul B (2016) CO 2 emissions, real output, energy consumption, trade, urbanization and financial development: testing the EKC hypothesis for the USA. Environ Sci Pollut Res 23(2):1203–1213
doi: 10.1007/s11356-015-5323-8
Fahad S, Hussain S, Saud S, Khan F, Hassan S, Nasim W et al (2016) Exogenously applied plant growth regulators affect heat-stressed rice pollens. J Agron Crop Sci 202(2):139–150. https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12148
doi: 10.1111/jac.12148
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) (2019) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ( http://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=PAK accessed on 07.05.2019)
FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics) (2018) Crops harvested. Food and Agricultural Organization Statistical Service. ( http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home )
Fitzgerald GJ, Tausz M, O'Leary G, Mollah MR, Tausz-Posch S, Seneweera S, Mock I, Löw M, Partington DL, McNeil D, Norton RM (2016) Elevated atmospheric [CO2] can dramatically increase wheat yields in semi-arid environments and buffer against heat waves. Glob Chang Biol 22(6):2269–2284
doi: 10.1111/gcb.13263
GOP- Government of Pakistan (2018) Economic survey 2018, finance division. Economic Advisor’s Wing, Islamabad
Halkos G, Skouloudis A (2019) Investigating resilience barriers of small and medium-sized enterprises to flash floods: a quantile regression of determining factors. Clim Dev:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1596782
Hayami Y, Ruttan VW (1985) Agricultural development: an international perspective. Rev. And Expanded. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore
Holst R, Yu X, Grün C (2013) Climate change, risk and grain yields in China. J Integr Agric 12(7):1279–1291. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60435-9
doi: 10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60435-9
Hossain MS, Arshad M, Qian L, Kächele H, Khan I, Islam MDI, Mahboob MG (2020) Climate change impacts on farmland value in Bangladesh. Ecol Indic 112:106181
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106181
Hossain MS, Qian L, Arshad M, Shahid S, Fahad S, Akhter J (2019a) Climate change and crop farming in Bangladesh: an analysis of economic impacts. Int J Clim Change Strat Manag
Hossain MS, Arshad M, Qian L, Zhao M, Mehmood Y, Kächele H (2019b) Economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh: an application of Ricardian method. Ecol Econ 164:106354
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106354
Husnain MIU, Subramanian A, Haider A (2018) Robustness of geography as an instrument to assess impact of climate change on agriculture. Int J Clim Change Strat Manag. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0049
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014) Synthesis Report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 27: 408
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Atmospheric Research 225 (2019) 110–120 118 press, Cambridge
John OO (2015) Robustness of quantile regression to outliers. Am J Appl Math Stat 3(2):86–88
Katungi E, Horna D, Gebeyehu S, Sperling L (2011) Market access, intensification and productivity of common bean in Ethiopia: a microeconomic analysis. Afr J Agric Res 6(2):476–487. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR10.011
doi: 10.5897/AJAR10.011
Knox J, Hess T, Daccache A, Wheeler T (2012) Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environ Res Lett 7:034032. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032
doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032
Koenker R, Bassett Jr G (1978) Regression quantiles. Econ: J Econ Soc. 33–50
Koondhar MA, Qiu L, Magsi H, Chandio AA, He G (2018) Comparing economic efficiency of wheat productivity in different cropping systems of Sindh Province, Pakistan. J Saudi Soc Agric Sci 17(4):398–407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2016.09.006
doi: 10.1016/j.jssas.2016.09.006
Kreft S, Eckstein D, Junghans L, Kerestan C, Hagen U (2013) Global climate risk index 2014. Who suffers most from extreme weather events, 1?. https://germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/publication/16411.pdf . Accessed 18 Feb 2019
Krupnik TJ, Ahmed ZU, Timsina J, Shahjahan M, Kurishi AA, Miah AA, Rahman BS, Gathala MK, McDonald AJ (2015) Forgoing the fallow in Bangladesh's stress-prone coastal deltaic environments: effect of sowing date, nitrogen, and genotype on wheat yield in farmers’ fields. Field Crop Res 170:7–20 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.09.019
doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2014.09.019
Krupnik TJ, Santos Valle S, Hossain I, Gathala MK, Justice S, Gathala MK, McDonald AJ (2013) Made in Bangladesh: scale-appropriate machinery for agricultural resource conservation. International maize and wheat improvement center, Mexico, p 126
Krupnik TJ, Six J, Ladha JK, Paine MJ, Van Kessel C (2004) An assessment of fertilizer nitrogen recovery efficiency by grain crops. Agriculture and the nitrogen cycle. The Scientific Committee Problems of the Environment. Island Press, Covelo, pp 193–207
Leider J (2012) A Quantile regression study of climate change in Chicago, 1960–2010. Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of Illinois, Chicago. https://doi.org/10.1137/12S01174X
doi: 10.1137/12S01174X
Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcon WP, Naylor RL (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319(5863):607–610 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152339
doi: 10.1126/science.1152339
Lobell DB, Field CB (2007) Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ Res Lett 2:014002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002
doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002
Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Robert J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333(6042):616–620. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531
doi: 10.1126/science.1204531
Lobell DB, Sibley A, Ortiz-Monasterio JI (2012) Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nat Clim Chang 2(3):186–189 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1356
doi: 10.1038/nclimate1356
Lovell CK (1993) Production frontiers and productive efficiency. The measurement of productive efficiency: Techniques and applications. 3:67
Mahmood N, Arshad M, Kächele H, Ma H, Ullah A, Müller K (2019) Wheat yield response to input and socioeconomic factors under changing climate: evidence from rainfed environments of Pakistan. Sci Total Environ 688:1275–1285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.266
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.266
Mahmood N, Arshad M, Kaechele H, Shahzad MF, Ullah A, Mueller K (2020) Fatalism, climate resiliency training and farmers’ adaptation responses: implications for sustainable Rainfed-wheat production in Pakistan. Sustainability 12(4):1650
doi: 10.3390/su12041650
Mondal S, Singh RP, Crossa J, Huerta-Espino J, Sharma I, Chatrath R et al (2013) Earliness in wheat: a key to adaptation under terminal and continual high temperature stress in South Asia. Field Crop Res 151:19–26 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2013.06.015
doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2013.06.015
Moutinho V, Madaleno M, Inglesi-Lotz R, Dogan E (2018) Factors affecting CO2 emissions in top countries on renewable energies: a LMDI decomposition application. Renew Sust Energ Rev 90:605–622
doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.02.009
Naveendrakumar G, Vithanage M, Kwon HH, Chandrasekara SSK, Iqbal MCM, Pathmarajah S, Fernando WCDK, Obeysekera J (2019) South Asian perspective on temperature and rainfall extremes: a review. Atmos Res 225:110–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.021
doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.021
Oduol JBA, Hotta K, Shinkai S, Tsuji M (2006) Farm size and productive efficiency: lessons from smallholder farms in Embu District. Kenya J Fac Agric Kyushu Univ 51:449e458
Parikh A, Ali F, Shah MK (1995) Measurement of economic efficiency in Pakistani agriculture. Am J Agric Econ 77(3):675–685
doi: 10.2307/1243234
Patra S, Mishra P, Mahapatra SC, Mithun SK (2016) Modelling impacts of chemical fertilizer on agricultural production: a case study on Hooghly district, West Bengal, India. Model Earth Syst Environ 2(4):180. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-016-0223-6
doi: 10.1007/s40808-016-0223-6
PMD - Pakistan Metrological Department (2017) Government of Pakistan. http://www.pmd.gov.pk/en/
Poudel S, Kotani K (2013) Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes? Clim Chang 116(2):327–355
doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0491-8
Ray DK, Gerber JS, MacDonald GK, West PC (2015) Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nat Commun 6:5989. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6989
doi: 10.1038/ncomms6989
Ricardo D (1817) On the principles of political economy and taxation. Batoche Books, Ontaria
Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Müller C, Arneth A et al (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(9):3268–3273
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110
Saiyut P, Bunyasiri I, Sirisupluxana P, Mahathanaseth I (2019) The impact of age structure on technical efficiency in Thai agriculture. Kasetsart J Soc Sci 40(3):539–545
Shahzad MF, Abdulai A (2020) Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan. Agric Syst 180:102772
doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102772
Sheikh MM, Manzoor N, Ashraf J, Adnan M, Collins D, Hameed S, Manton MJ, Ahmed AU, Baidya SK, Borgaonkar HP, Islam N, Jayasinghearachchi D, Kothawale DR, Premalal KHMS, Revadekarh JV, Shresthak ML (2015) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia. Int J Climatol 35(7):1625–1637
doi: 10.1002/joc.4081
Sheng Y, Chancellor W (2019) Exploring the relationship between farm size and productivity: evidence from the Australian grains industry. Food Policy 84:196–204
doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.03.012
Sheng Y, Ding J, Huang J (2019) The relationship between farm size and productivity in agriculture: evidence from maize production in northern China. Am J Agric Econ 101(3):790–806
doi: 10.1093/ajae/aay104
Sial M, Iqbal S, Sheikh A (2012) Farm size - productivity relationship: recent evidence from Central Punjab. Pak Econ Soc Rev 50:139e162
Ullah A, Arshad M, Kächele H, Khan A, Mahmood N, Müller K (2020) Information asymmetry, input markets, adoption of innovations and agricultural land use in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Land Use Policy 90:104261
doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104261
Vincent K, Dougill AJ, Dixon JL, Stringer LC, Cull T (2015) Identifying climate services needs for national planning: insights from Malawi. Clim Pol 17:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1075374
doi: 10.1080/14693062.2015.1075374
Yadav MR, Parihar CM, Jat SL, Singh AK, Kumar D, Pooniya V, Parihar MD, Saveipune D, Parmar H, Jat ML (2016) Effect of long-term tillage and diversified crop rotations on nutrient uptake, profitability and energetics of maize (Zea mays) in North-Western India. Indian J Agric Sci 86(6):743–749

Auteurs

Nasir Mahmood (N)

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany. nasir.mahmood@zalf.de.
Department of Economics & Agricultural Economics, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan. nasir.mahmood@zalf.de.
Albrecht Daniel Thaer Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University, 10117, Berlin, Germany. nasir.mahmood@zalf.de.

Muhammad Arshad (M)

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.
Albrecht Daniel Thaer Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University, 10117, Berlin, Germany.

Harald Kächele (H)

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.
Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development, Schicklerstraße 5, 16225, Eberswalde, Germany.

Ayat Ullah (A)

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.

Klaus Müller (K)

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.
Albrecht Daniel Thaer Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University, 10117, Berlin, Germany.

Articles similaires

[Redispensing of expensive oral anticancer medicines: a practical application].

Lisanne N van Merendonk, Kübra Akgöl, Bastiaan Nuijen
1.00
Humans Antineoplastic Agents Administration, Oral Drug Costs Counterfeit Drugs

Smoking Cessation and Incident Cardiovascular Disease.

Jun Hwan Cho, Seung Yong Shin, Hoseob Kim et al.
1.00
Humans Male Smoking Cessation Cardiovascular Diseases Female
Humans United States Aged Cross-Sectional Studies Medicare Part C
1.00
Humans Yoga Low Back Pain Female Male

Classifications MeSH