Serial interval and time-varying reproduction number estimation for COVID-19 in western Iran.
Coronavirus disease 2019
Generation time
Iran
Serial interval
Time-varying reproduction number
Journal
New microbes and new infections
ISSN: 2052-2975
Titre abrégé: New Microbes New Infect
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101624750
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jul 2020
Jul 2020
Historique:
received:
05
05
2020
revised:
04
06
2020
accepted:
09
06
2020
entrez:
23
6
2020
pubmed:
23
6
2020
medline:
23
6
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
There is no report on the serial interval (SI) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iran, the present report aims to estimate the SI and time-varying R of COVID-19 in western Iran. In this study, there were 1477 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 for Kermanshah from 22 February to 9 April. The close contacts of the confirmed cases were identified using telephone follow up of patients and their contacts. The SI distribution was used as an alternative. We fitted different models using the clinical onset dates of patients with their close contact (infector-infectee). Also, we applied a 'serial interval from sample' approach as a Bayesian methodology for estimating reproduction number. From 22 February to 29 March, 247 COVID-19 cases were confirmed by RT-PCR. Close contact between 21 patients (21 infector-infectee pairs), including 12 primary cases and 21 secondary cases, was confirmed. The mean and standard deviation of the SI were estimated as 5.71 and 3.89 days. The R varied from 0.79 to 1.88 for a 7-day time-lapse and ranged from 0.92 to 1.64 for a 14-day time-lapse on raw data. Also, the R varied from 0.83 to 1.84 for 7-day time-lapse and from 0.95 to 1.54 for a 14-day time-lapse using moving average data, respectively. It can be concluded that the low reproduction number for COVID-19 in Kermanshah province is an indication of the effectiveness of preventive and interventive programmes such as quarantine and isolation. Consequently, continuing these preventive measures is highly recommended.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32566233
doi: 10.1016/j.nmni.2020.100715
pii: S2052-2975(20)30067-6
pii: 100715
pmc: PMC7293842
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
100715Informations de copyright
© 2020 The Author(s).
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