Development and Validation of a Nomogram Predicting the Prognosis of Renal Cell Carcinoma After Nephrectomy.
influencing factors
nomogram
prognosis
renal cell carcinoma
Journal
Cancer management and research
ISSN: 1179-1322
Titre abrégé: Cancer Manag Res
Pays: New Zealand
ID NLM: 101512700
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2020
2020
Historique:
received:
18
02
2020
accepted:
26
05
2020
entrez:
2
7
2020
pubmed:
2
7
2020
medline:
2
7
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients after nephrectomy. In total, 488 patients with RCC who underwent nephrectomy at the Urology Department of the First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University between January 2013 and December 2018 were randomly divided into a development cohort (n = 344) and a validation cohort (n = 144). The development cohort was used to build a prediction model, and the validation cohort was used for validation. Single-factor and multifactor analyses were carried out with R software, and the nomogram, calibration chart, ROC curve and C index were constructed. The median follow-up time of the development and validation cohorts was 34 months. The total 3-year and 5-year survival rates of the development cohort were 93.3% and 91.6%, respectively; those of the validation cohort were 92.4% and 91.0%, respectively. Cox univariate analysis of the development cohort showed that age, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), smoking history, type of surgery, T stage, N stage, M stage and Fuhrman nuclear grade were prognostic factors for OS in RCC patients undergoing nephrectomy. Cox multivariate analysis showed that T2DM, smoking history and T stage were independent prognostic factors for OS in RCC patients undergoing nephrectomy (P < 0.05). According to the univariate and multivariate analyses, a nomogram was constructed. In the development cohort, the C index of predicted OS was 0.875 (95% CI, 0.820-0.930). The calibration curve of the 3-year and 5-year survival rates showed that the predicted value of the nomogram was consistent with the actual observed value. The area under the 3-year and 5-year survival ROC curves was 0.861 and 0.901, respectively. In the validation cohort, the C index was 0.880 (95% CI, 0.778-0.982). The calibration curve of the 3-year and 5-year survival rates showed that the predicted value of the nomogram was consistent with the actual observed value. The area under the 3-year and 5-year survival ROC curves was 0.813 and 0.799, respectively. We developed and verified a new and accurate nomogram with available clinicopathological data that can effectively predict the OS of RCC patients after nephrectomy.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32606940
doi: 10.2147/CMAR.S250371
pii: 250371
pmc: PMC7295215
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
4461-4473Informations de copyright
© 2020 Xia et al.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
All authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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