Parameter estimation and prediction for coronavirus disease outbreak 2019 (COVID-19) in Algeria.
COVID-19
SEIR epidemic model
basic reproduction number
Journal
AIMS public health
ISSN: 2327-8994
Titre abrégé: AIMS Public Health
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101635098
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2020
2020
Historique:
received:
19
04
2020
accepted:
18
05
2020
entrez:
4
7
2020
pubmed:
4
7
2020
medline:
4
7
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The wave of the coronavirus disease outbreak in 2019 (COVID-19) has spread all over the world. In Algeria, the first case of COVID-19 was reported on 25 February, 2020, and the number of confirmed cases of it has increased day after day. To overcome this difficult period and a catastrophic scenario, a model-based prediction of the possible epidemic peak and size of COVID-19 in Algeria is required. We are concerned with a classical epidemic model of susceptible, exposed, infected and removed (SEIR) population dynamics. By using the method of least squares and the best fit curve that minimizes the sum of squared residuals, we estimate the epidemic parameter and the basic reproduction number We find that Algeria must implement the strict measures as shown in this study, which could be similar to the one that China has finally adopted.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
The wave of the coronavirus disease outbreak in 2019 (COVID-19) has spread all over the world. In Algeria, the first case of COVID-19 was reported on 25 February, 2020, and the number of confirmed cases of it has increased day after day. To overcome this difficult period and a catastrophic scenario, a model-based prediction of the possible epidemic peak and size of COVID-19 in Algeria is required.
METHODS
METHODS
We are concerned with a classical epidemic model of susceptible, exposed, infected and removed (SEIR) population dynamics. By using the method of least squares and the best fit curve that minimizes the sum of squared residuals, we estimate the epidemic parameter and the basic reproduction number
RESULTS
RESULTS
We find that
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Algeria must implement the strict measures as shown in this study, which could be similar to the one that China has finally adopted.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32617358
doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2020026
pii: publichealth-07-02-026
pmc: PMC7327392
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
306-318Informations de copyright
© 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Conflict of interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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