Cumulative incidence and diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New York.
Coronavirus
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Infectious diseases
Seroepidemiologic studies
Seroprevalence
Surveillance
Journal
Annals of epidemiology
ISSN: 1873-2585
Titre abrégé: Ann Epidemiol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9100013
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
08 2020
08 2020
Historique:
received:
03
06
2020
revised:
10
06
2020
accepted:
10
06
2020
pubmed:
11
7
2020
medline:
19
8
2020
entrez:
11
7
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
New York State (NYS) is an epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Reliable estimates of cumulative incidence in the population are critical to tracking the extent of transmission and informing policies. We conducted a statewide seroprevalence study in a 15,101 patron convenience sample at 99 grocery stores in 26 counties throughout NYS. SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence was estimated from antibody reactivity by first poststratification weighting and then adjusting by antibody test characteristics. The percent diagnosed was estimated by dividing the number of diagnoses by the number of estimated infection-experienced adults. Based on 1887 of 15,101 (12.5%) reactive results, estimated cumulative incidence through March 29 was 14.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.3%-14.7%), corresponding to 2,139,300 (95% CI: 2,035,800-2,242,800) infection-experienced adults. Cumulative incidence was highest in New York City 22.7% (95% CI: 21.5%-24.0%) and higher among Hispanic/Latino (29.2%), non-Hispanic black/African American (20.2%), and non-Hispanic Asian (12.4%) than non-Hispanic white adults (8.1%, P < .0001). An estimated 8.9% (95% CI: 8.4%-9.3%) of infections in NYS were diagnosed, with diagnosis highest among adults aged 55 years or older (11.3%, 95% CI: 10.4%-12.2%). From the largest U.S. serosurvey to date, we estimated >2 million adult New York residents were infected through late March, with substantial disparities, although cumulative incidence remained less than herd immunity thresholds. Monitoring, testing, and contact tracing remain essential public health strategies.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32648546
pii: S1047-2797(20)30201-5
doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.06.004
pmc: PMC7297691
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
23-29.e4Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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