Hemogram data as a tool for decision-making in COVID-19 management: applications to resource scarcity scenarios.

COVID-19 Hemogram Machine learning Naïve-Bayes Scarcity

Journal

PeerJ
ISSN: 2167-8359
Titre abrégé: PeerJ
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101603425

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
2020
Historique:
received: 10 05 2020
accepted: 15 06 2020
entrez: 14 7 2020
pubmed: 14 7 2020
medline: 14 7 2020
Statut: epublish

Résumé

COVID-19 pandemics has challenged emergency response systems worldwide, with widespread reports of essential services breakdown and collapse of health care structure. A critical element involves essential workforce management since current protocols recommend release from duty for symptomatic individuals, including essential personnel. Testing capacity is also problematic in several countries, where diagnosis demand outnumbers available local testing capacity. This work describes a machine learning model derived from hemogram exam data performed in symptomatic patients and how they can be used to predict qRT-PCR test results. Hemogram exams data from 510 symptomatic patients (73 positives and 437 negatives) were used to model and predict qRT-PCR results through Naïve-Bayes algorithms. Different scarcity scenarios were simulated, including symptomatic essential workforce management and absence of diagnostic tests. Adjusts in assumed Proposed models can predict COVID-19 qRT-PCR results in symptomatic individuals with high accuracy, sensitivity and specificity, yielding a 100% sensitivity and 22.6% specificity with a Machine learning models can be derived from widely available, quick, and inexpensive exam data in order to predict qRT-PCR results used in COVID-19 diagnosis. These models can be used to assist strategic decision-making in resource scarcity scenarios, including personnel shortage, lack of medical resources, and testing insufficiency.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND BACKGROUND
COVID-19 pandemics has challenged emergency response systems worldwide, with widespread reports of essential services breakdown and collapse of health care structure. A critical element involves essential workforce management since current protocols recommend release from duty for symptomatic individuals, including essential personnel. Testing capacity is also problematic in several countries, where diagnosis demand outnumbers available local testing capacity.
PURPOSE OBJECTIVE
This work describes a machine learning model derived from hemogram exam data performed in symptomatic patients and how they can be used to predict qRT-PCR test results.
METHODS METHODS
Hemogram exams data from 510 symptomatic patients (73 positives and 437 negatives) were used to model and predict qRT-PCR results through Naïve-Bayes algorithms. Different scarcity scenarios were simulated, including symptomatic essential workforce management and absence of diagnostic tests. Adjusts in assumed
RESULTS RESULTS
Proposed models can predict COVID-19 qRT-PCR results in symptomatic individuals with high accuracy, sensitivity and specificity, yielding a 100% sensitivity and 22.6% specificity with a
CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS
Machine learning models can be derived from widely available, quick, and inexpensive exam data in order to predict qRT-PCR results used in COVID-19 diagnosis. These models can be used to assist strategic decision-making in resource scarcity scenarios, including personnel shortage, lack of medical resources, and testing insufficiency.

Identifiants

pubmed: 32656001
doi: 10.7717/peerj.9482
pii: 9482
pmc: PMC7331623
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Pagination

e9482

Informations de copyright

© 2020 Avila et al.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

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Auteurs

Eduardo Avila (E)

Forensic Genetics Laboratory, School of Health and Life Sciences, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
Technical Scientific Section, Federal Police Department in Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
National Institute of Science and Technology - Forensic Science, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

Alessandro Kahmann (A)

National Institute of Science and Technology - Forensic Science, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, Federal University of Rio Grande, Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

Clarice Alho (C)

Forensic Genetics Laboratory, School of Health and Life Sciences, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
National Institute of Science and Technology - Forensic Science, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

Marcio Dorn (M)

National Institute of Science and Technology - Forensic Science, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Laboratory of Structural Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, Institute of Informatics, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

Classifications MeSH