Trend Dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission in 16 Cities of Hubei Province, China.
China
SARS-CoV-2
Wuhan
cities
death
trends
Journal
Clinical epidemiology
ISSN: 1179-1349
Titre abrégé: Clin Epidemiol
Pays: New Zealand
ID NLM: 101531700
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2020
2020
Historique:
received:
20
03
2020
accepted:
11
06
2020
entrez:
17
7
2020
pubmed:
17
7
2020
medline:
17
7
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detected by researchers from a patient in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, and broke out in January 2020. Then, the pandemic was detected in countries around the world. Therefore, precise estimates of its current and future trends are highly required for future policy implications. We retrieved data from the Health Commission of Hubei, China. Logistic-S curve model was used to estimate the current and future trends of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases among 16 cities of Hubei, China from Jan-11 to Feb-24, 2020. Out of 64,287 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hubei, higher percentage of cases were in Wuhan and Xiaogan. The highest death percentage was found in Wuhan and Qianjiang. A significant percentage of cures were found in Enshi Prefecture and Huanggang, while Wuhan showed the lowest percentage of cures. Rising trends in infected cases were observed throughout the study period, particularly in Wuhan, and a higher trend was observed after 12-Feb. Gradual decline trend of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed during Feb-25 to Mar-15 in Hubei Province. Future forecast showed that the average number of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases might be decreased or stable in Hubei in the coming 20 days. The public must take precautionary measures in order to control and prevent disease spread and avoid extra travelling.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32669878
doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S254806
pii: 254806
pmc: PMC7337437
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
699-709Informations de copyright
© 2020 Fawad et al.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.
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