Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.
Journal
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Titre abrégé: medRxiv
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101767986
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
28 Aug 2020
28 Aug 2020
Historique:
pubmed:
18
7
2020
medline:
18
7
2020
entrez:
18
7
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We use a global metapopulation transmission model to study the establishment of sustained and undetected community transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The model is calibrated on international case importations from mainland China and takes into account travel restrictions to and from international destinations. We estimate widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in February, 2020. Modeling results indicate international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the West and East Coast metropolitan areas that could have been seeded as early as late-December, 2019. For most of the continental states the largest contribution of imported infections arrived through domestic travel flows.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32676609
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.06.20140285
pmc: PMC7359534
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Preprint
Langues
eng
Commentaires et corrections
Type : UpdateIn
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing Interests M.E.H. reports grants from National Institute of General Medical Sciences, during the conduct of the study; A.V. reports grants and personal fees from Metabiota inc., outside the submitted work; M.C. and A.P.P. report grants from Metabiota inc., outside the submitted work. No other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
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