Advection exacerbates population decline from habitat loss: maintaining threatened taxa while restoring natural river flow regimes.

Modification of flow regimes and habitat degradation are the strongest, most common, and often co-occurring human activities affecting riverine populations. Ongoing efforts to restore peak flow events found under pristine flow regimes could increase advection-driven dispersal for many species. In rivers with extensive habitat loss, increased advection could transport individuals from remnant populations into degraded downstream areas, causing restored flow regimes to decrease persistence of threatened species. To demonstrate such possible 'washout' effects across imperiled taxa, we evaluate population growth in spatial models of insect, fish, and mollusc taxa that experience advective dispersal and either long-term habitat loss or temporary drought disturbances. As a case study to quantify advective dispersal in threatened species, we use intensive mark-recapture methods in a Rio Grande population of the endangered mussel Popenaias popeii belonging to the Unionida order, the most threatened faunal taxa worldwide. Our mark-recapture models estimate high levels of annual downstream emigration (16-51%) and immigration from upstream habitats (32-48%) of adult P. popeii, a result consistent with hydrodynamic experiments. Across taxa where such advective dispersal occurs in specific life stages, our population model suggests that washout effects might strongly reduce population recovery under high levels of habitat loss, especially for sessile or shorter lived species. Averting this potential negative consequence of restoring hydrology requires simultaneously restoring or protecting long, contiguous stretches of suitable habitats. In heavily impacted systems, we suggest integrating hydrodynamic studies and field surveys to detect the presence of advective dispersal and prioritize areas for habitat restoration to enhance population persistence.