The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa.
climate change
epidemiology
global health
mathematical model
virus
yellow fever
Journal
eLife
ISSN: 2050-084X
Titre abrégé: Elife
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101579614
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
28 07 2020
28 07 2020
Historique:
received:
30
01
2020
accepted:
01
07
2020
entrez:
29
7
2020
pubmed:
29
7
2020
medline:
13
2
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Yellow Fever (YF) is an arbovirus endemic in tropical regions of South America and Africa and it is estimated to cause 78,000 deaths a year in Africa alone. Climate change may have substantial effects on the transmission of YF and we present the first analysis of the potential impact on disease burden. We extend an existing model of YF transmission to account for rainfall and a temperature suitability index and project transmission intensity across the African endemic region in the context of four climate change scenarios. We use these transmission projections to assess the change in burden in 2050 and 2070. We find disease burden changes heterogeneously across the region. In the least severe scenario, we find a 93.0%[95%CI(92.7, 93.2%)] chance that annual deaths will increase in 2050. This change in epidemiology will complicate future control efforts. Thus, we may need to consider the effect of changing climatic variables on future intervention strategies.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32718436
doi: 10.7554/eLife.55619
pii: 55619
pmc: PMC7386919
doi:
pii:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : World Health Organization
ID : 001
Pays : International
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/R015600/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
ID : OPP1117543
Pays : International
Organisme : Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
ID : OPP1157270
Pays : International
Informations de copyright
© 2020, Gaythorpe et al.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
KG, AH, LC, TG No competing interests declared, NF Senior editor, eLife
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