The Value of a New Diagnostic Test for Prostate Cancer: A Cost-Utility Analysis in Early Stage of Development.

BACKGROUND

Standard biopsy for prostate cancer diagnosis is an unpleasant and sometimes painful procedure with a detection rate as low as around 50%. Consequently, an accurate blood-based test would be highly desirable to improve the predictive accuracy. However, the clinical value of a new blood test for diagnosing prostate cancer depends on its sensitivity and specificity, in relation to the selected target population.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this analysis was to investigate the health-economic value of introducing a new and more accurate diagnostic blood-based test to identify men in need of a biopsy to diagnose prostate cancer.

METHOD

We developed a Discrete Event Simulation Model with outputs including number of biopsies, cancer diagnosis, treatments and prostate cancer deaths. The analysis was performed from a health care perspective. It used epidemiologic data, treatment patterns, and health care costs from the Swedish region Skåne (population of 1.3 million). A 90% sensitivity and specificity of the new test was assumed.

RESULTS

Among 31,250 men, age 50-69 years, 16.4% had a PSA between 3.0 and 9.9 µg/L and 28.9% a PSA of 2.0-9.9 µg/L. Testing men with PSA 3.0-9.9 µg/L, as in current clinical practice, decreased the number of biopsies by 3595, detected 61 more cancers, resulting in and two more fatalities and subsequently a loss of 14 QALYs. Cost offsets could justify a test value of SEK 4996. Testing a larger population, PSA 2.0-9.9 µg/L prevented 6 deaths, added 50 QALYs, and could justify a value of the test of SEK 5165, given a value of health of SEK 500,000 per QALY.

CONCLUSION

A new blood-based test for prostate cancer has a significant potential to reduce the number of biopsies needed, resulting in reduced health care costs and improve patient care.