Estimates of the global reduction in liver disease-related mortality with increased coffee consumption: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Dataset.
Journal
Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics
ISSN: 1365-2036
Titre abrégé: Aliment Pharmacol Ther
Pays: England
ID NLM: 8707234
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 2020
10 2020
Historique:
received:
26
05
2020
revised:
10
06
2020
accepted:
16
07
2020
pubmed:
15
8
2020
medline:
12
1
2021
entrez:
15
8
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Epidemiological data suggest that coffee has a dose-dependent protective effect on liver-related mortality. To estimate the potential impact of increased per capita coffee consumption on global liver-related mortality. Using the Global Burden of Disease 2016 dataset (adults > 15 years), we modelled the impact of increased per capita coffee consumption on liver-related mortality in 2016 for 194 countries using published risk ratios for >2 cups coffee/ day (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.42-0.69) and ≥4 cups/ day (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17-0.50), adjusted for confounders and tested model assumptions using sensitivity analyses. Worldwide, there were an estimated 1,240,201 (95% CI 118 4300-1 354 410) adult liver-related deaths in 2016. Median global liver mortality rate in 2016 was 15 deaths/ 100 000 population/ year (all ages, both genders; IQR 11-21 deaths per 100 000). If all countries with per capita coffee intake ≤2 cups/ day increased to >2 cups/ day, the predicted total number of liver-related deaths would have been 630 947 in 2016 (95% CI 629 693-631 861) with 452 861 (95% CI 451 948-454 116) deaths averted (PPR 7.8 liver-related deaths/ 100 000/ year). If per capita consumption was ≥ 4 cups/ day, the predicted number of liver-related deaths in 2016 would have been 360 523 (95% CI 359 825-361 992) with 723 287 (95% CI 721 817-723 984) deaths averted (PPR 12.1 liver-related deaths/100 000/year). Increasing per capita coffee consumption to > 2 cups per day on a population level has the potential to avert hundreds of thousands of liver-related deaths annually if the impact of coffee on liver-related mortality is confirmed in clinical trials.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Epidemiological data suggest that coffee has a dose-dependent protective effect on liver-related mortality.
AIM
To estimate the potential impact of increased per capita coffee consumption on global liver-related mortality.
METHODS
Using the Global Burden of Disease 2016 dataset (adults > 15 years), we modelled the impact of increased per capita coffee consumption on liver-related mortality in 2016 for 194 countries using published risk ratios for >2 cups coffee/ day (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.42-0.69) and ≥4 cups/ day (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17-0.50), adjusted for confounders and tested model assumptions using sensitivity analyses.
RESULTS
Worldwide, there were an estimated 1,240,201 (95% CI 118 4300-1 354 410) adult liver-related deaths in 2016. Median global liver mortality rate in 2016 was 15 deaths/ 100 000 population/ year (all ages, both genders; IQR 11-21 deaths per 100 000). If all countries with per capita coffee intake ≤2 cups/ day increased to >2 cups/ day, the predicted total number of liver-related deaths would have been 630 947 in 2016 (95% CI 629 693-631 861) with 452 861 (95% CI 451 948-454 116) deaths averted (PPR 7.8 liver-related deaths/ 100 000/ year). If per capita consumption was ≥ 4 cups/ day, the predicted number of liver-related deaths in 2016 would have been 360 523 (95% CI 359 825-361 992) with 723 287 (95% CI 721 817-723 984) deaths averted (PPR 12.1 liver-related deaths/100 000/year).
CONCLUSION
Increasing per capita coffee consumption to > 2 cups per day on a population level has the potential to avert hundreds of thousands of liver-related deaths annually if the impact of coffee on liver-related mortality is confirmed in clinical trials.
Substances chimiques
Coffee
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1195-1203Informations de copyright
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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