Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework.
COVID-19 Epidemic
Mathematical Modelling of Epidemics
SIR Model
Journal
Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena
ISSN: 0167-2789
Titre abrégé: Physica D
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 9890573
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Oct 2020
Oct 2020
Historique:
received:
26
04
2020
revised:
10
06
2020
accepted:
14
06
2020
entrez:
25
8
2020
pubmed:
25
8
2020
medline:
25
8
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale of the epidemic can be changed by acting on the parameters characterizing the model. Using these results and having as guideline the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, we compare the efficiency of different containment strategies for contrasting an epidemic diffusion such as social distancing, lockdown, tracing, early detection and isolation.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32834247
doi: 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132626
pii: S0167-2789(20)30280-3
pii: 132626
pmc: PMC7305940
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
132626Informations de copyright
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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