Impact of intervention methods on COVID-19 transmission in Shenzhen.
Agent-based model
COVID-19
Close contact
Infection spread
SEIR model
Journal
Building and environment
ISSN: 0360-1323
Titre abrégé: Build Environ
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101562928
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Aug 2020
Aug 2020
Historique:
received:
03
05
2020
revised:
10
06
2020
accepted:
26
06
2020
entrez:
25
8
2020
pubmed:
25
8
2020
medline:
25
8
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
By March 31, 2020, COVID-19 had spread to more than 200 countries. Over 750,000 confirmed cases were reported, leading to more than 36,000 deaths. In this study, we analysed the efficiency of various intervention strategies to prevent infection by the virus, SARS-CoV-2, using an agent-based SEIIR model, in the fully urbanised city of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China. Shortening the duration from symptom onset to hospital admission, quarantining recent arrivals from Hubei Province, and letting symptomatic individuals stay at home were found to be the three most important interventions to reduce the risk of infection in Shenzhen. The ideal time window for a mandatory quarantine of arrivals from Hubei Province was between 10 January and January 17, 2020, while the ideal time window for local intervention strategies was between 15 and 22 January. The risk of infection could have been reduced by 50% if all symptomatic individuals had immediately gone to hospital for isolation, and by 35% if a 14-day quarantine for arrivals from Hubei Province had been introduced one week earlier. Intervention strategies implemented in Shenzhen were effective, and the spread of infection would be controlled even if the initial basic reproduction number had doubled. Our results may be useful for other cities when choosing their intervention strategies to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32834417
doi: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2020.107106
pii: S0360-1323(20)30481-9
pii: 107106
pmc: PMC7331564
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
107106Informations de copyright
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Références
N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1199-1207
pubmed: 31995857
J Thorac Dis. 2020 Mar;12(3):165-174
pubmed: 32274081
Lancet. 2020 Mar 21;395(10228):931-934
pubmed: 32164834
Environ Int. 2016 Sep;94:369-379
pubmed: 27107973
Lancet. 2020 Mar 7;395(10226):764-766
pubmed: 32105609
Indoor Air. 2019 Jul;29(4):577-590
pubmed: 30908707
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Feb 24;17(4):
pubmed: 32102305
Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(9):
pubmed: 32156327
Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Apr;8(4):e488-e496
pubmed: 32119825
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 May;20(5):e102-e107
pubmed: 32145768
J Med Virol. 2020 Jul;92(7):841-848
pubmed: 32243599
Ann Intern Med. 2020 May 5;172(9):577-582
pubmed: 32150748
N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1268-1269
pubmed: 32109011
BMC Med. 2011 Jul 19;9:87
pubmed: 21771290
J Autoimmun. 2020 May;109:102433
pubmed: 32113704
Build Environ. 2020 May 15;175:106827
pubmed: 32287995
Nature. 2005 Sep 8;437(7056):209-14
pubmed: 16079797
Build Environ. 2018 Jan;127:211-220
pubmed: 32287976
PLoS One. 2011;6(8):e23176
pubmed: 21858018
Indoor Air. 2020 Jul;30(4):645-661
pubmed: 32259319
J Theor Biol. 2004 Dec 7;231(3):357-76
pubmed: 15501468
Euro Surveill. 2020 Feb;25(5):
pubmed: 32046816
J Theor Biol. 2019 Jun 7;470:20-29
pubmed: 30851275
Science. 2020 Apr 24;368(6489):395-400
pubmed: 32144116