A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities.
COVID-19
SIR model
forecasting
infectious disease
pandemic
virus spreading
Journal
Chaos, solitons, and fractals
ISSN: 0960-0779
Titre abrégé: Chaos Solitons Fractals
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100971564
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Oct 2020
Oct 2020
Historique:
received:
18
06
2020
accepted:
23
06
2020
entrez:
25
8
2020
pubmed:
25
8
2020
medline:
25
8
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to investigate its spread within a community. Here, the model is based upon the well-known susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with the difference that a total population is not defined or kept constant per se and the number of susceptible individuals does not decline monotonically. To the contrary, as we show herein, it can be increased in surge periods! In particular, we investigate the time evolution of different populations and monitor diverse significant parameters for the spread of the disease in various communities, represented by China, South Korea, India, Australia, USA, Italy and the state of Texas in the USA. The SIR model can provide us with insights and predictions of the spread of the virus in communities that the recorded data alone cannot. Our work shows the importance of modelling the spread of COVID-19 by the SIR model that we propose here, as it can help to assess the impact of the disease by offering valuable predictions. Our analysis takes into account data from January to June, 2020, the period that contains the data before and during the implementation of strict and control measures. We propose predictions on various parameters related to the spread of COVID-19 and on the number of susceptible, infected and removed populations until September 2020. By comparing the recorded data with the data from our modelling approaches, we deduce that the spread of COVID-19 can be under control in all communities considered, if proper restrictions and strong policies are implemented to control the infection rates early from the spread of the disease.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32834610
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110057
pii: S0960-0779(20)30454-9
pii: 110057
pmc: PMC7321055
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
110057Informations de copyright
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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