An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic.

Age and Space Structured SIR Model Covid-19 Modeling Differential Equations in Epidemic Modeling

Journal

Journal of mathematics in industry
ISSN: 2190-5983
Titre abrégé: J Math Ind
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 101690574

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
2020
Historique:
received: 20 05 2020
accepted: 30 07 2020
entrez: 25 8 2020
pubmed: 25 8 2020
medline: 25 8 2020
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained. The online version of this article (10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4) contains supplementary material.

Identifiants

pubmed: 32834920
doi: 10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4
pii: 90
pmc: PMC7414273
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Pagination

22

Informations de copyright

© The Author(s) 2020.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Références

J Math Biol. 2008 Jul;57(1):1-27
pubmed: 17985131
Math Biosci Eng. 2019 Nov 14;17(2):1074-1089
pubmed: 32233571

Auteurs

Rinaldo M Colombo (RM)

INdaM Unit, University of Brescia, Via Branze 38, Brescia, 25123 Italy.

Mauro Garavello (M)

Dept. of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Milano-Bicocca, Via R. Cozzi 55, Milan, 20125 Italy.

Francesca Marcellini (F)

INdaM Unit, University of Brescia, Via Branze 38, Brescia, 25123 Italy.

Elena Rossi (E)

Dept. of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Milano-Bicocca, Via R. Cozzi 55, Milan, 20125 Italy.

Classifications MeSH