The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures.
Basic Reproduction Number
Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
Communicable Disease Control
/ standards
Coronavirus Infections
/ epidemiology
Forecasting
Geography
Hospitalization
/ statistics & numerical data
Humans
Italy
/ epidemiology
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics
/ prevention & control
Pneumonia, Viral
/ epidemiology
SARS-CoV-2
Social Isolation
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
26 08 2020
26 08 2020
Historique:
received:
07
05
2020
accepted:
24
07
2020
entrez:
28
8
2020
pubmed:
28
8
2020
medline:
15
9
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily ~5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32848152
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2
pii: 10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2
pmc: PMC7449964
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
4264Subventions
Organisme : EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)
ID : 773421
Pays : International
Organisme : Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Padova e Rovigo (Foundation Cariparo)
ID : 55722
Pays : International
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