Impacts of transportation and meteorological factors on the transmission of COVID-19.
COVID-19
China
Interaction
Meteorological factors
Transportation
Journal
International journal of hygiene and environmental health
ISSN: 1618-131X
Titre abrégé: Int J Hyg Environ Health
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 100898843
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 2020
09 2020
Historique:
received:
17
06
2020
revised:
03
08
2020
accepted:
21
08
2020
pubmed:
9
9
2020
medline:
16
11
2021
entrez:
8
9
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The ongoing pandemic of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is challenging global public health response system. We aim to identify the risk factors for the transmission of COVID-19 using data on mainland China. We estimated attack rate (AR) at county level. Logistic regression was used to explore the role of transportation in the nationwide spread. Generalized additive model and stratified linear mixed-effects model were developed to identify the effects of multiple meteorological factors on local transmission. The ARs in affected counties ranged from 0.6 to 9750.4 per million persons, with a median of 8.8. The counties being intersected by railways, freeways, national highways or having airports had significantly higher risk for COVID-19 with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 1.40 (p = 0.001), 2.07 (p < 0.001), 1.31 (p = 0.04), and 1.70 (p < 0.001), respectively. The higher AR of COVID-19 was significantly associated with lower average temperature, moderate cumulative precipitation and higher wind speed. Significant pairwise interactions were found among above three meteorological factors with higher risk of COVID-19 under low temperature and moderate precipitation. Warm areas can also be in higher risk of the disease with the increasing wind speed. In conclusion, transportation and meteorological factors may play important roles in the transmission of COVID-19 in mainland China, and could be integrated in consideration by public health alarm systems to better prevent the disease.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32896785
pii: S1438-4639(20)30556-3
doi: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2020.113610
pmc: PMC7448770
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
113610Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.