Demographic and climatic factors associated with dengue prevalence in a hyperendemic zone in Mexico: an empirical approach.
climate
correlation
dengue
seroprevalence
sociodemographic
Journal
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
ISSN: 1878-3503
Titre abrégé: Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg
Pays: England
ID NLM: 7506129
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 01 2021
07 01 2021
Historique:
received:
21
05
2020
revised:
07
08
2020
accepted:
17
08
2020
pubmed:
11
9
2020
medline:
25
6
2021
entrez:
10
9
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Many models for predicting dengue epidemics use incidence and short-term changes in climate variables, however, studies in real-life scenarios for correlations of seroprevalence (SP) with long-term climate variables and with integration of socio-economic factors are scarce. Our objective was to analyse the combined correlation between socio-economic and climate variables with the SP of dengue in Mexico. We performed a seroepidemiological ecological study on the Mexican Pacific coast. Dengue SP was estimated by the presence of immunoglobulin G antibodies in 1278 inhabitants. We implemented multiple correlations with socio-economic, climatic and topographic characteristics using logistic regression, generalized linear models and non-linear regressions. Dengue SP was 58%. The age-adjusted correlation was positive with the male sex, while a negative correlation was seen with socio-economic status (SES) and scholl level (SL). The annual temperature showed a positive correlation, while the altitude was negative. It should be noted that these correlations showed a marked 'S' shape in the non-linear model, suggesting three clearly defined scenarios for dengue risk. Low SES and SL showed an unexpected paradoxical protective effect. Altitude above sea level and annual temperature are the main determinants for dengue in the long term. The identification of three clearly delineated scenarios for transmission could improve the accuracy of predictive models.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Many models for predicting dengue epidemics use incidence and short-term changes in climate variables, however, studies in real-life scenarios for correlations of seroprevalence (SP) with long-term climate variables and with integration of socio-economic factors are scarce. Our objective was to analyse the combined correlation between socio-economic and climate variables with the SP of dengue in Mexico.
METHODS
We performed a seroepidemiological ecological study on the Mexican Pacific coast. Dengue SP was estimated by the presence of immunoglobulin G antibodies in 1278 inhabitants. We implemented multiple correlations with socio-economic, climatic and topographic characteristics using logistic regression, generalized linear models and non-linear regressions.
RESULTS
Dengue SP was 58%. The age-adjusted correlation was positive with the male sex, while a negative correlation was seen with socio-economic status (SES) and scholl level (SL). The annual temperature showed a positive correlation, while the altitude was negative. It should be noted that these correlations showed a marked 'S' shape in the non-linear model, suggesting three clearly defined scenarios for dengue risk.
CONCLUSION
Low SES and SL showed an unexpected paradoxical protective effect. Altitude above sea level and annual temperature are the main determinants for dengue in the long term. The identification of three clearly delineated scenarios for transmission could improve the accuracy of predictive models.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32911533
pii: 5903849
doi: 10.1093/trstmh/traa083
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
63-73Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.