Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany.
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
Child
Child, Preschool
Coronavirus Infections
/ epidemiology
Female
Germany
/ epidemiology
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Influenza, Human
/ epidemiology
Male
Middle Aged
Orthomyxoviridae
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral
/ epidemiology
SARS-CoV-2
Seasons
Young Adult
COVID-19
Corona virus
Germany
Mortality
Pandemic
Journal
The Journal of infection
ISSN: 1532-2742
Titre abrégé: J Infect
Pays: England
ID NLM: 7908424
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Nov 2020
Nov 2020
Historique:
received:
04
09
2020
accepted:
07
09
2020
pubmed:
22
9
2020
medline:
25
11
2020
entrez:
21
9
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time. We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016-2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals. During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60-69, 80-89, and 90+. The age group 70-79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10-23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1•03 (95%CI 1•03-1•04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80-89 and 90+ (SMR=1•08 and SMR=1•09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0•98 (95%CI 0•98-0•99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10-23, 2020. The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32956730
pii: S0163-4453(20)30596-X
doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.09.012
pmc: PMC7501062
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
797-801Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest None of the authors declares a competing interest.
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