Potential risk factors of swine erysipelas outbreak in Northeast Mainland China.
Northeast Mainland China
high precipitation
high temperature
potential outbreak
risk factors
swine erysipelas
Journal
Transboundary and emerging diseases
ISSN: 1865-1682
Titre abrégé: Transbound Emerg Dis
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 101319538
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
May 2021
May 2021
Historique:
revised:
29
08
2020
received:
10
12
2019
accepted:
12
09
2020
pubmed:
24
9
2020
medline:
17
6
2021
entrez:
23
9
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Swine erysipelas is a common infectious disease that affects the pig-breeding industry. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the risk factors and their role in the prevalence of swine erysipelas so that one may be able to better prevent and control the swine erysipelas outbreaks in Northeast China. Using spatial clusters, the study area was divided into two parts: South Central Mainland China (hot spots) and Northeast Mainland China (potential outbreak areas). We investigated a total of 31 environmental factors and used the lasso regression and k-fold cross-validation methods to determine the main factors involved. Seven risk factors were determined to have a major impact on swine erysipelas. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the contribution of these seven risk factors to the outbreak from 2008 to 2018, in the two research regions. In South Central Mainland China, where swine erysipelas was most prevalent, the extreme maximum temperature [OR = 1.143 (95%CI: 1.032-1.342)], total precipitation [OR = 2.298 (95%CI: 1.410-5.112)] and precipitation ≥0.1 mm [OR = 2.396 (95%CI: 1.329-5.941)] exhibited positive effects. The maximum wind speed [OR = 0.550 (95%CI: 0.303-0.775)] and concentration of O3-8H-90 per [OR = 0.876 (95%CI: 0.747-0.980)] exhibited negative effects. Summer was the main season for the erysipelas epidemic in South Central Mainland China. In Northeast China, only the total precipitation [OR = 1.048 (95%CI: 0.900-0.989)] was positively correlated with the prevalence of swine erysipelas, whereas the other factors were not significant. There was no obvious seasonal feature for the epidemic. Through the comparison and analysis of risk factors between the two research regions, more attention should be given to the impacts of high temperature and precipitation on the swine erysipelas epidemic in Northeast China.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1652-1662Subventions
Organisme : Major Program of Applied Technology Research and Development Plan of Heilongjiang Province
ID : GA18B203
Organisme : National Key R&D Program of China
ID : 2017YFD0501806
Informations de copyright
© 2020 Wiley-VCH GmbH.
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