Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.
CMIP6
future change
high resolution
model bias
tracking algorithms
tropical cyclones
Journal
Geophysical research letters
ISSN: 0094-8276
Titre abrégé: Geophys Res Lett
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9882887
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
28 Jul 2020
28 Jul 2020
Historique:
received:
30
04
2020
revised:
07
06
2020
accepted:
09
06
2020
entrez:
1
10
2020
pubmed:
2
10
2020
medline:
2
10
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32999514
doi: 10.1029/2020GL088662
pii: GRL60814
pmc: PMC7507130
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
e2020GL088662Informations de copyright
©2020. Crown copyright.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
There are no financial conflict of interest for any author.
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