Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050.
biodiversity
biological invasions
business-as-usual scenario
future predictions
global
modelling
species richness
trends
Journal
Global change biology
ISSN: 1365-2486
Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9888746
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 Oct 2020
01 Oct 2020
Historique:
received:
06
03
2020
accepted:
22
08
2020
entrez:
1
10
2020
pubmed:
2
10
2020
medline:
2
10
2020
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
ID : 31003A_179491
Organisme : Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
ID : 31BD30_184114
Organisme : Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
ID : CEECIND/02037/2017
Organisme : OP RDE
ID : EVA4.0
Organisme : Austrian Science Fund
ID : I 4011-B32
Organisme : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
ID : SE 1891/2-1
Organisme : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
ID : 264740629
Organisme : Grantová Agentura České Republiky
ID : 19-28807X
Organisme : Akademie Věd České Republiky
ID : RVO 67985939
Organisme : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
ID : JE 288/9-2
Organisme : Austrian Science Fund FWF
ID : I 3757
Pays : Austria
Organisme : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
ID : 01LC1807A
Organisme : USDA Forest Service
Organisme : Belmont Forum
Organisme : Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
ID : UIDB/00295/2020
Organisme : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
ID : 01LC1807C
Organisme : Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
ID : UIDP/00295/2020
Organisme : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
ID : FZT 118
Organisme : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
ID : 01LC1807B
Organisme : OP RDE
ID : CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803
Informations de copyright
© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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