Predictors of Long-Term Pain After Hip Arthroplasty in Patients With Femoral Neck Fractures: A Cohort Study.

To identify factors associated with the development of prolonged pain after hip fracture surgery. Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial. Eighty hospitals in 10 countries. One thousand four hundred forty-one hip fracture patients in the HEALTH trial. Total hip arthroplasty or hemiarthroplasty. Moderate-to-severe pain (at least 2 activities on the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis questionnaire pain subscale with scores ≥2) at 12 and 24 months after hip arthroplasty. Of 840 and 726 patients with complete baseline data and outcomes at 1-year and 2-year follow-up, 96 (11.4%) and 80 (11.0%) reported moderate-to-severe pain, respectively. An increased risk of pain at both 1 and 2 years after surgery was associated with reporting moderate-to-severe hip pain before fracture [absolute risk increase (ARI) 15.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.44%-24.35%; ARI 12.5%, 95% CI 2.85%-22.12%, respectively] and prefracture opioid use (ARI 15.6%, 95% CI 5.41%-25.89%; ARI 21.1%; 95% CI 8.23%-34.02%, respectively). Female sex was associated with an increased risk of persistent pain at 1 year (ARI 6.2%, 95% CI 3.53%-8.84%). A greater risk of persistent pain at 2 years was associated with younger age (≤79-year-old; ARI 6.3%; 95% CI 2.67%-9.91%) and higher prefacture functional status (ARI 10.7%; 95% CI 3.80%-17.64%). Among hip fracture patients undergoing arthroplasty, approximately one in 10 will experience moderate-to-severe pain up to 2 years after surgery. Younger age, female sex, higher functioning prefracture, living with hip pain prefracture, and use of prescription opioids were predictive of persistent pain. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.