Development and validation of a knowledge-driven risk calculator for critical illness in COVID-19 patients.
Aged
COVID-19
/ diagnosis
COVID-19 Testing
Clinical Laboratory Techniques
/ standards
Critical Care
/ organization & administration
Critical Illness
/ therapy
Female
Hospitalization
/ statistics & numerical data
Humans
Israel
Male
Middle Aged
Retrospective Studies
Risk Assessment
/ standards
Risk Factors
Journal
The American journal of emergency medicine
ISSN: 1532-8171
Titre abrégé: Am J Emerg Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 8309942
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jan 2021
Jan 2021
Historique:
received:
08
07
2020
revised:
31
08
2020
accepted:
20
09
2020
pubmed:
12
10
2020
medline:
23
12
2020
entrez:
11
10
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Facing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, evidence to inform decision-making at all care levels is essential. Based on the results of a study by Petrilli et al., we have developed a calculator using patient data at admission to predict critical illness (intensive care, mechanical ventilation, hospice care, or death). We report a retrospective validation of the calculator on 145 consecutive patients admitted with COVID-19 to a single hospital in Israel. Despite considerable differences between the original and validation study populations, of 18 patients with critical illness, 17 were correctly identified (sensitivity: 94.4%, 95% CI, 72.7%-99.9%; specificity: 81.9%, 95% CI, 74.1%-88.2%). Of 127 patients with non-critical illness, 104 were correctly identified. Our results indicate that published knowledge can be reliably applied to assess patient risk, potentially reducing the cognitive burden on physicians, and helping policymakers better prepare for future needs.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33039212
pii: S0735-6757(20)30848-2
doi: 10.1016/j.ajem.2020.09.051
pmc: PMC7510415
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Validation Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
143-145Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest AC, MZK, RM and GA are employed by Kahun Medical Ltd. All other authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Références
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