The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study.
Health inequalities
Poverty
Public health policy
Social epidemiology
Socio-economic
Journal
Journal of epidemiology and community health
ISSN: 1470-2738
Titre abrégé: J Epidemiol Community Health
Pays: England
ID NLM: 7909766
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
20 Oct 2020
20 Oct 2020
Historique:
received:
05
06
2020
revised:
19
09
2020
accepted:
13
10
2020
entrez:
21
10
2020
pubmed:
22
10
2020
medline:
22
10
2020
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
Life expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare 'reforms' have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland. We applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms. We estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (-20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (-23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males. This study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Life expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare 'reforms' have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland.
METHODS
METHODS
We applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms.
RESULTS
RESULTS
We estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (-20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (-23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males.
INTERPRETATION
CONCLUSIONS
This study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33082131
pii: jech-2020-214770
doi: 10.1136/jech-2020-214770
pmc: PMC7958084
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Informations de copyright
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing interests: None declared.
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