Predictive model of bleeding following endoscopic sphincterotomy for the treatment of choledocholithiasis in hemodialysis patients: A retrospective multicenter study.
choledocholithiasis
hemodialysis
postendoscopic sphincterotomy bleeding
Journal
JGH open : an open access journal of gastroenterology and hepatology
ISSN: 2397-9070
Titre abrégé: JGH Open
Pays: Australia
ID NLM: 101730833
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Oct 2020
Oct 2020
Historique:
received:
16
09
2019
revised:
01
04
2020
accepted:
09
05
2020
entrez:
26
10
2020
pubmed:
27
10
2020
medline:
27
10
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Although hemodialysis (HD) is a strong risk factor for postendoscopic sphincterotomy (ES) bleeding, additional risk factors in HD patients remain unclear. There is no model for predicting post-ES bleeding risk in HD patients. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective multicenter study to reveal these risk factors and develop a predictive model of post-ES bleeding in HD patients. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of HD patients who underwent ES at eight hospitals between January 2006 and December 2016, with post-ES bleeding as the main outcome measure. Univariate analyses were performed to extract possible risk factors for post-ES bleeding. Factors that were clinically important and statistically significant in our univariate analyses were then included in our logistic regression analysis for the development of a multivariate predictive model of post-ES bleeding. This predictive model was visualized using a predictive nomogram. Post-ES bleeding occurred in 20 (16.3%) of 123 HD patients. Based on clinically important factors and the results of our univariate analyses, platelet count, prothrombin time (international normalized ratio), and HD duration were included in our predictive model of post-ES bleeding. Receiver operating characteristic analysis found that this model had an area under the curve of 0.715 (95% confidence interval, 0.609-0.822). We developed a predictive nomogram based on these results. We demonstrated that post-ES bleeding is more common in HD patients than in the general population and succeeded in constructing a predictive model that can effectively identify HD patients at risk of post-ES bleeding.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND AND AIM
OBJECTIVE
Although hemodialysis (HD) is a strong risk factor for postendoscopic sphincterotomy (ES) bleeding, additional risk factors in HD patients remain unclear. There is no model for predicting post-ES bleeding risk in HD patients. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective multicenter study to reveal these risk factors and develop a predictive model of post-ES bleeding in HD patients.
METHODS
METHODS
We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of HD patients who underwent ES at eight hospitals between January 2006 and December 2016, with post-ES bleeding as the main outcome measure. Univariate analyses were performed to extract possible risk factors for post-ES bleeding. Factors that were clinically important and statistically significant in our univariate analyses were then included in our logistic regression analysis for the development of a multivariate predictive model of post-ES bleeding. This predictive model was visualized using a predictive nomogram.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Post-ES bleeding occurred in 20 (16.3%) of 123 HD patients. Based on clinically important factors and the results of our univariate analyses, platelet count, prothrombin time (international normalized ratio), and HD duration were included in our predictive model of post-ES bleeding. Receiver operating characteristic analysis found that this model had an area under the curve of 0.715 (95% confidence interval, 0.609-0.822). We developed a predictive nomogram based on these results.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
We demonstrated that post-ES bleeding is more common in HD patients than in the general population and succeeded in constructing a predictive model that can effectively identify HD patients at risk of post-ES bleeding.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33102764
doi: 10.1002/jgh3.12363
pii: JGH312363
pmc: PMC7578281
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
915-922Informations de copyright
© 2020 The Authors. JGH Open: An open access journal of gastroenterology and hepatology published by Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest associated with this article.
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