The impact of e-cigarette and cigarette prices on e-cigarette and cigarette sales in California.

Although numerous studies have examined the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette demand, research examining the impact of e-cigarette and cigarette prices on e-cigarette demand is relatively limited. This study estimated the impact of e-cigarette and cigarette prices on e-cigarette and cigarette sales in California. Using the 2012-2017 Nielsen Retail Scanner Data, we constructed e-cigarette prices, cigarette prices, and per capita e-cigarette and cigarette sales by year, quarter, and Nielsen scantrack market in California. E-cigarettes were categorized as disposable or reusable. Separate fixed-effects models estimated the impact of e-cigarette and cigarette prices on per capita disposable e-cigarette, reusable e-cigarette, and cigarette sales controlling for year, quarter, market, and smoke-free air law coverage. Average prices were $5.86 per pack of 20 cigarettes, $9.80 per disposable e-cigarette, and $19.11 per reusable e-cigarette. When prices of disposable e-cigarettes, reusable e-cigarettes, and cigarettes increased by 1%, per capita sales of the products decreased by 0.37%, 0.20%, and 0.21% respectively. Cigarette prices were positively associated with per capita sales of reusable e-cigarettes, indicating reusable e-cigarettes are substitutes for cigarettes. Reusable e-cigarette prices were positively associated with per capita sales of disposable e-cigarettes, indicating disposable e-cigarettes are substitutes for reusable e-cigarettes. No statistically significant association was found between disposable/reusable e-cigarette prices and cigarette sales. Our results suggest that raising prices of disposable e-cigarettes, reusable e-cigarettes, and cigarettes such as via tobacco excise tax increases would result in reduced sales for the products. Policymakers should consider the substitution between e-cigarettes and cigarettes when designing tobacco control policies.

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© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.