Development and validation of a novel prognostic score for elderly head-and-neck cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy or chemoradiation.
Elderly patients
Geriatric patients
Head-and-neck cancer
Nomogram
Prognostic score;
Radiotherapy
Journal
Radiotherapy and oncology : journal of the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology
ISSN: 1879-0887
Titre abrégé: Radiother Oncol
Pays: Ireland
ID NLM: 8407192
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 2021
01 2021
Historique:
received:
13
09
2020
revised:
11
11
2020
accepted:
19
11
2020
pubmed:
28
11
2020
medline:
24
4
2021
entrez:
27
11
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To establish a clinically feasible prognostic score and nomogram based on easily accessible clinical data that will aid decision-making in elderly head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients undergoing (chemo)radiotherapy. 284 elderly HNSCC patients (≥65 years) undergoing curative (chemo)radiotherapy were included for the development of a score predicting overall survival (OS) based on the beta regression coefficients from significant parameters in a multivariate Cox regression analysis with p < 0.1 as inclusion criterion. A second, external cohort of 217 elderly HNSCC patients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy was used for validation. Using the aggregated data (n = 501), a nomogram was developed to predict 2- and 4-year OS. Karnofsky Performance Status (HR = 2.654; p < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (HR = 2.598; p < 0.001) and baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) level (HR = 1.634; p = 0.068) were prognostic for OS in the multivariate analysis. An OS score based on beta regression coefficients was created, in which reduced performance status, increased comorbidity burden and increased CRP levels were included, leading to 3 distinct survival groups. The median OS for the 3 groups amounted to 107, 28 and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The developed score was able to significantly differentiate between a favorable (median OS = 130 months), intermediate (29 months) and unfavorable prognosis (9 months) also in the external validation cohort (p = 0.005). We propose a novel, validated prognostic score based on easily accessible clinical data allowing stratification between prognostic groups of elderly HNSCC patients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy. The derived nomogram for the prediction of 2-year and 4-year OS may aid decision-making for this vulnerable population.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE
To establish a clinically feasible prognostic score and nomogram based on easily accessible clinical data that will aid decision-making in elderly head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients undergoing (chemo)radiotherapy.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
284 elderly HNSCC patients (≥65 years) undergoing curative (chemo)radiotherapy were included for the development of a score predicting overall survival (OS) based on the beta regression coefficients from significant parameters in a multivariate Cox regression analysis with p < 0.1 as inclusion criterion. A second, external cohort of 217 elderly HNSCC patients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy was used for validation. Using the aggregated data (n = 501), a nomogram was developed to predict 2- and 4-year OS.
RESULTS
Karnofsky Performance Status (HR = 2.654; p < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (HR = 2.598; p < 0.001) and baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) level (HR = 1.634; p = 0.068) were prognostic for OS in the multivariate analysis. An OS score based on beta regression coefficients was created, in which reduced performance status, increased comorbidity burden and increased CRP levels were included, leading to 3 distinct survival groups. The median OS for the 3 groups amounted to 107, 28 and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The developed score was able to significantly differentiate between a favorable (median OS = 130 months), intermediate (29 months) and unfavorable prognosis (9 months) also in the external validation cohort (p = 0.005).
CONCLUSION
We propose a novel, validated prognostic score based on easily accessible clinical data allowing stratification between prognostic groups of elderly HNSCC patients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy. The derived nomogram for the prediction of 2-year and 4-year OS may aid decision-making for this vulnerable population.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33245947
pii: S0167-8140(20)31193-2
doi: 10.1016/j.radonc.2020.11.023
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
276-282Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest Alexander Rühle, Carmen Stromberger, Erik Haehl, Carolin Senger, Hélène David, Raluca Stoian, Constantinos Zamboglou, Andreas Knopf, Volker Budach, Anca-Ligia Grosu and Nils H. Nicolay declare that they have no conflicts of interest.