Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework.

Climate-change impacts Climate-change mitigation Projection and prediction Socioeconomic scenarios Sustainability

Journal

Nature climate change
ISSN: 1758-678X
Titre abrégé: Nat Clim Chang
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101557419

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
2020
Historique:
received: 16 11 2019
accepted: 15 10 2020
pubmed: 3 12 2020
medline: 3 12 2020
entrez: 2 12 2020
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

Identifiants

pubmed: 33262808
doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0
pii: 952
pmc: PMC7688299
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Review

Langues

eng

Pagination

1074-1084

Informations de copyright

© Springer Nature Limited 2020.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests.

Auteurs

Brian C O'Neill (BC)

Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO USA.
Present Address: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD USA.

Timothy R Carter (TR)

Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland.

Kristie Ebi (K)

Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA.

Paula A Harrison (PA)

UK Centre of Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster, UK.

Eric Kemp-Benedict (E)

Stockholm Environment Institute, Somerville, MA USA.

Kasper Kok (K)

Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.

Elmar Kriegler (E)

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.

Benjamin L Preston (BL)

RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA USA.

Keywan Riahi (K)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.

Jana Sillmann (J)

Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway.

Bas J van Ruijven (BJ)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.

Detlef van Vuuren (D)

Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, the Netherlands.
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.

David Carlisle (D)

Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO USA.

Cecilia Conde (C)

Center of Atmospheric Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico (CCA-UNAM), Mexico City, Mexico.

Jan Fuglestvedt (J)

Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway.

Carole Green (C)

Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO USA.

Tomoko Hasegawa (T)

Ritsumeikan University, Kasuatsu, Japan.

Julia Leininger (J)

German Development Institute, Bonn, Germany.

Seth Monteith (S)

ClimateWorks Foundation, San Francisco, CA USA.

Ramon Pichs-Madruga (R)

Centre for World Economy Studies (CIEM), Havana, Cuba.

Classifications MeSH