Estimating transmission dynamics and serial interval of the first wave of COVID-19 infections under different control measures: a statistical analysis in Tunisia from February 29 to May 5, 2020.
Coronavirus
Lockdown
Reproduction number
Serial interval
Statistical models
Tunisia
Journal
BMC infectious diseases
ISSN: 1471-2334
Titre abrégé: BMC Infect Dis
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968551
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
02 Dec 2020
02 Dec 2020
Historique:
received:
23
05
2020
accepted:
03
11
2020
entrez:
3
12
2020
pubmed:
4
12
2020
medline:
15
12
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Describing transmission dynamics of the outbreak and impact of intervention measures are critical to planning responses to future outbreaks and providing timely information to guide policy makers decision. We estimate serial interval (SI) and temporal reproduction number (R We collected data of investigations and contact tracing between March 1, 2020 and May 5, 2020 as well as illness onset data during the period February 29-May 5, 2020 from National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia. Maximum likelihood (ML) approach is used to estimate dynamics of R Four hundred ninety-one of infector-infectee pairs were involved, with 14.46% reported pre-symptomatic transmission. SI follows Gamma distribution with mean 5.30 days [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.66-5.95] and standard deviation 0.26 [95% CI 0.23-0.30]. Also, we estimated large changes in R Overall, our findings highlight contribution of interventions to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Describing transmission dynamics of the outbreak and impact of intervention measures are critical to planning responses to future outbreaks and providing timely information to guide policy makers decision. We estimate serial interval (SI) and temporal reproduction number (R
METHODS
METHODS
We collected data of investigations and contact tracing between March 1, 2020 and May 5, 2020 as well as illness onset data during the period February 29-May 5, 2020 from National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia. Maximum likelihood (ML) approach is used to estimate dynamics of R
RESULTS
RESULTS
Four hundred ninety-one of infector-infectee pairs were involved, with 14.46% reported pre-symptomatic transmission. SI follows Gamma distribution with mean 5.30 days [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.66-5.95] and standard deviation 0.26 [95% CI 0.23-0.30]. Also, we estimated large changes in R
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Overall, our findings highlight contribution of interventions to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33267823
doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05577-4
pii: 10.1186/s12879-020-05577-4
pmc: PMC7708891
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
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