Taming the spread of an epidemic by lockdown policies.
Epidemic
Lockdown
Optimal stochastic control
SIR model
Viscosity solution
Journal
Journal of mathematical economics
ISSN: 0304-4068
Titre abrégé: J Math Econ
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 101681504
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Mar 2021
Mar 2021
Historique:
received:
21
07
2020
revised:
18
11
2020
accepted:
20
11
2020
pubmed:
17
12
2020
medline:
17
12
2020
entrez:
16
12
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic process whose trend can be adjusted via costly confinement policies. We provide a complete theoretical analysis, as well as numerical experiments illustrating the structure of the optimal lockdown policy. In all our experiments the latter is characterized by three distinct periods: the epidemic is first let to freely evolve, then vigorously tamed, and finally a less stringent containment should be adopted. Moreover, the optimal containment policy is such that the product "reproduction number
Identifiants
pubmed: 33324027
doi: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2020.102453
pii: S0304-4068(20)30130-0
pmc: PMC7728404
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
102453Informations de copyright
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Références
J Math Ind. 2020;10(1):23
pubmed: 32834921
J Math Econ. 2021 Mar;93:102490
pubmed: 33612918
Eur J Oper Res. 2023 Mar 16;305(3):1366-1389
pubmed: 35765314