Strong survival selection on seasonal migration versus residence induced by extreme climatic events.
Bayesian capture-recapture
eco-evolutionary dynamics
extreme climatic events
full annual cycle
multi-state model
partial migration
seasonal movement
sex-biased selection
Journal
The Journal of animal ecology
ISSN: 1365-2656
Titre abrégé: J Anim Ecol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0376574
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
04 2021
04 2021
Historique:
received:
30
03
2020
accepted:
22
11
2020
pubmed:
20
12
2020
medline:
20
4
2021
entrez:
19
12
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Elucidating the full eco-evolutionary consequences of climate change requires quantifying the impact of extreme climatic events (ECEs) on selective landscapes of key phenotypic traits that mediate responses to changing environments. Episodes of strong ECE-induced selection could directly alter population composition, and potentially drive micro-evolution. However, to date, few studies have quantified ECE-induced selection on key traits, meaning that immediate and longer-term eco-evolutionary implications cannot yet be considered. One widely expressed trait that allows individuals to respond to changing seasonal environments, and directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics, is seasonal migration versus residence. Many populations show considerable among-individual phenotypic variation, resulting in 'partial migration'. However, variation in the magnitude of direct survival selection on migration versus residence has not been rigorously quantified, and empirical evidence of whether seasonal ECEs induce, intensify, weaken or reverse such selection is lacking. We designed full annual cycle multi-state capture-recapture models that allow estimation of seasonal survival probabilities of migrants and residents from spatio-temporally heterogeneous individual resightings. We fitted these models to 9 years of geographically extensive year-round resighting data from partially migratory European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis. We thereby quantified seasonal and annual survival selection on migration versus residence across benign and historically extreme non-breeding season (winter) conditions, and tested whether selection differed between females and males. We show that two of four observed ECEs, defined as severe winter storms causing overall low survival, were associated with very strong seasonal survival selection against residence. These episodes dwarfed the weak selection or neutrality evident otherwise, and hence caused selection through overall annual survival. The ECE that caused highest overall mortality and strongest selection also caused sex-biased mortality, but there was little overall evidence of sex-biased selection on migration versus residence. Our results imply that seasonal ECEs and associated mortality can substantially shape the landscape of survival selection on migration versus residence. Such ECE-induced phenotypic selection will directly alter migrant and resident frequencies, and thereby alter immediate spatio-seasonal population dynamics. Given underlying additive genetic variation, such ECEs could potentially cause micro-evolutionary changes in seasonal migration, and thereby cause complex eco-evolutionary population responses to changing seasonal environments.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33340099
doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13410
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
796-808Informations de copyright
© 2020 British Ecological Society.
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