Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean.
DBEM
NicheMapperTM
Paris agreement
RCP scenarios
energy requirement
mechanistic habitat selection
seabird distributions
seabird migration
Journal
Global change biology
ISSN: 1365-2486
Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9888746
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Apr 2021
Apr 2021
Historique:
received:
08
09
2020
accepted:
28
10
2020
pubmed:
22
12
2020
medline:
24
4
2021
entrez:
21
12
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1457-1469Subventions
Organisme : Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum, Greenland Government
Organisme : New Brunswick Wildlife Trust
Organisme : University of New Brunswick
Organisme : Federal Government of Canada
Organisme : Government of Greenland
Organisme : Danish Ministry of Environment and Food
Organisme : Natural Resources Canada
ID : 213-08
Organisme : Environment and Climate Change Canada
Organisme : French Polar Institute Paul Emile Victor
Organisme : ORNITHO-ENDOCRINO
Organisme : Excellence Chair Nouvelle Aquitaine
Informations de copyright
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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