The clock is ticking: Temporally prioritizing eradications on islands.
conservation decision-making
eradication
invasive species
islands
prioritization
rattus
survival analysis
Journal
Global change biology
ISSN: 1365-2486
Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9888746
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Apr 2021
Apr 2021
Historique:
received:
25
08
2020
revised:
26
11
2020
accepted:
14
12
2020
pubmed:
29
12
2020
medline:
24
4
2021
entrez:
28
12
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Achieving conservation objectives is time critical, but the vast number of threats and potential actions means some form of ranking is necessary to aid prioritization. Objective methods for ranking conservation actions based on when they are differentially likely to become feasible, or to succeed, are currently unavailable within existing decision-making frameworks but are critical for making informed management decisions. We demonstrate how statistical tools developed for survival (or time-to-event) analysis can be used to rank conservation actions over time, through the lens of invasive mammal eradications on islands. Here we forecast the probability of eradicating commensal rat species (Rattus rattus, R. norvegicus, R. exulans) from the New Zealand archipelago by the government's stated target of year 2050. Our methods provide temporally ranked eradication trajectories for the entire country, thus facilitating meeting nationwide policy goals. This demonstration highlights the relevance and applicability of such an approach and its utility for prioritizing globally effective conservation actions.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1443-1456Subventions
Organisme : New Zealand International Doctoral Research Scholarship
Organisme : Marie Sklodowska-Curie Fellowship
ID : 747120
Organisme : Rutherford Discovery Fellowship
ID : RDF-UOA1404
Organisme : High tech solutions to invasive mammals pests
ID : 1617-44-003
Informations de copyright
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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