Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity.
Climate change
drought
ecosystem modelling
palaeoecology
stability
vulnerability
Journal
Ecology letters
ISSN: 1461-0248
Titre abrégé: Ecol Lett
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101121949
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Mar 2021
Mar 2021
Historique:
received:
03
04
2020
revised:
18
11
2020
accepted:
23
11
2020
pubmed:
31
12
2020
medline:
16
2
2021
entrez:
30
12
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model-data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world.
Types de publication
Letter
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
498-508Subventions
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB-1241891
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB-1241868
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB-1241874
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB-1241851
Informations de copyright
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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