Forecast of Malignant Peritoneal Mesothelioma Mortality in Italy up to 2040.
APC model
asbestos
forecasts
occupational medicine
peritoneal mesothelioma
public health
Journal
International journal of environmental research and public health
ISSN: 1660-4601
Titre abrégé: Int J Environ Res Public Health
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101238455
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
28 12 2020
28 12 2020
Historique:
received:
19
11
2020
revised:
24
12
2020
accepted:
27
12
2020
entrez:
31
12
2020
pubmed:
1
1
2021
medline:
17
2
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Despite their differences, pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma are frequently lumped together to describe epidemic curves and to forecast future mesothelioma trends. This study aims to describe the malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) epidemic in Italy (1996-2016) and to forecast future trends up to 2040 in order to contribute to the assessment of MPeM future burden. All MPeM deaths in Italy from 1996-2016 were collected (as provided by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT)) in order to estimate MPeM mortality rates for each 3-year period from 1996 to 2016. Poisson age-period-cohort (APC) models were then used to forecast MPeM future trends. Between 2017 and 2040, 1333 MPeM deaths are expected. The number of MPeM deaths, as well as mortality rates, are expected to constantly decrease throughout the considered period. Based on considering the information from this study, it can be concluded that the MPeM epidemic has probably already reached its peak in Italy.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33379304
pii: ijerph18010160
doi: 10.3390/ijerph18010160
pmc: PMC7796001
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
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