The value of decreasing the duration of the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.
Journal
PLoS computational biology
ISSN: 1553-7358
Titre abrégé: PLoS Comput Biol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101238922
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 2021
01 2021
Historique:
received:
30
04
2020
accepted:
27
10
2020
entrez:
7
1
2021
pubmed:
8
1
2021
medline:
15
1
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 [treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R0) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed] to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R0 2.0). With R0 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33411742
doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008470
pii: PCOMPBIOL-D-20-00729
pmc: PMC7790237
doi:
Substances chimiques
COVID-19 Vaccines
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e1008470Subventions
Organisme : NIH HHS
ID : 5R01HD086013-02
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : R01 GM127512
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIH HHS
ID : 1 R01 GM127512-01A1
Pays : United States
Organisme : NICHD NIH HHS
ID : U01 HD086861
Pays : United States
Organisme : NICHD NIH HHS
ID : R01 HD086013
Pays : United States
Organisme : AHRQ HHS
ID : R01 HS023317
Pays : United States
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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